2020 Nats Opportunity

[Dave Rigotti]

I wonder what driving to the NATS risk is compared to actually getting the Corona virus risk?
P.S. I'm going if there is a NATS this year......

[pmackenzie]

I wonder what driving to the NATS risk is compared to actually getting the Corona virus risk?
P.S. I'm going if there is a NATS this year......

~37,000 die in car accidents per year in the US
~100,000 have died from CV19 in the last 3 months

But I would say in both cases, you do have some control over your own future, it is not simply bad luck.

[John Lindberg]

Here's some interesting information, Muncie is in Delaware County: https://www.ballstatedaily.com/article/2020/03/news-delaware-county-indiana-united-states-global-coronavirus-covid-19-cases

[Dave_Trible]

An update for today;  this morning I looked at where we are on entries for Official events.  ( I have no idea what will happen with Unofficial events)
 In open we have 13 entries.  Sadly we have lost one of those with the passing of Jerry Haupt.  One of the others who entered early has told me he would be doubtful to come with the virus still an issue.  That leaves 11 for now.  Advanced entries also have 11 for now and we have two Juniors.  I think we may get at least one Senior.  I haven't done it yet but I will try putting these numbers into the Nats computer program and see what results it gives for the semi finals and Top? Maybe 2-3?  We do have a few more days for entries so we will watch that.  We still need to get the Event Director for Classic/N-30/and Old Time.  That may fall to me as well.  I need to contact the other EDs and see where they are. 
Finally I received an email today from our Head Judge Mark Overmier and he wished to share with others:

NATS Thoughts

As we are less than two months away from the Nats I thought I would share my thoughts.  I really hope we can pull this off but seems more doubtful with each passing day.  I think the next month will show if the United States can open up and we can still be relatively safe.  I have my doubts.

I go to the Nats not to compete, but for conversation, interaction with other people, and to eat at some fine local restaurants, like the 12th Street Cafe, Cammack Station, and the Chocolate Moose.  Take those away and it won't be much fun.  I spend a week with friends talking about model airplanes.  It is like a reunion as some people I only see at the Nats once a year. 

Do I want to go to the Nats, hunker down in my hotel room until it is time to judge, go judge, stay 6 feet away from everyone and go back to hunker down in my room until the next day?  No.

We may be able to keep social distancing in effect at the flying field but what about for our pilot's meeting and the appearance judging ?  How will we keep social distancing in the pavilion?  For the recorders in the trailer?  The tents along the fencing are usually packed with people sharing conversation and trying to take a break from the sun.

For the judges:
Our training sessions in the morning will be VERY difficult if we stay six feet apart during the practice flights.  Then when we gather to discuss the flight,  we need to gather in close just to be able to hear each other.

During actual judging again it would be difficult to stay six feet apart.  We all try to be in the right spot to judge.  We sometimes run into each other moving around the circle, not watching where we are going as we are focused on the airplane on the circle.  Would pilots be okay with judges spaced six feet apart, sitting in chairs and not moving except between flights?

It is hot in Muncie during NATS week in July.  Sometimes stifling hot!  I think it will be very uncomfortable to be wearing masks while we are sweating out in the hot sunshine.

If we do get sick, do we want to be stuck at a hospital in Muncie, away from friends , relatives and our own doctor?

These are just some thoughts about why we may need to cancel this year.  Feel free to share, discuss, or refute!

Mark Overmier

[James Mills]

Ben and I registered today around noon, so that will add two to Advanced and one Sr.

James

[Dave_Trible]

James I saw you in my count today so Advanced stands at 11.  Ben was the Senior I didn't see at the time but mentioned above.

Dave

[Matt Brown]

Since I’m new to competition, what have the average entries been in open and advanced last several years?
As much as I want the Nats to happen, the more people comment, the less I’m looking forward to it. So many have already decided they aren’t willing to make the trip or aren’t looking forward to possible conditions. I don’t want my first real PA Nats to be under this dark cloud and drastically reduced numbers. At the same time, many of us are getting older and may not have that many opportunities left to fly the Nats. I’ve actually been thinking about how long I have left to improve my flying before age starts catching up with me and limiting my ability.
I think one way or another I will be there. I already have the vacation time set. If the Nats don’t happen, I’ll hang out and get some practice for several days.

Matt

[Dave_Trible]

Matt these numbers right now are 1/3rd or a little less what we've had for awhile.  I think it was something like 34-35 in Open last year and not sure about Advanced but I'd think mid-twenties.  This, if it happens will be a shadow of what normally happens.  This is one of the reasons along with the obvious safety issues which I think the most of us understand and appreciate, why some of us think it would be better just to let this one go...But I/we will try to make it happen if AMA decides to go on with it.  I may need to consider the practicality of asking the judges and crew to pay and stay for another night for a two-man fly-off or something like that.
It is my hope that NEXT YEAR the next Event Director (it will not be me) will be able to lead a much better contest, maybe closer to normal.  To me it seems likely there may not be enough of a viable vaccine for 10 years if ever in our lifetime.  Our lives are going to be forever changed with this but maybe once we've learned a little better how to cope with this thing and perhaps at least new and better ways to treat it without near the lethality rate we have now then we can live our lives and have our Nats like we know and love.  That is my hope regardless of how it works out this year. 

[Derek Barry]

Mark makes some excellent points.

As Brett has already stated, if there is going to be 6 foot separation and face mask rules enforced, there is no Nats. We can't launch each other, judges can't judge accurately,  pilots meeting can't happen,  etc...

That being said, I already have my vacation schedule for the Nats week, and if there is one, I will most likely be there. I'm not wearing a mask, so we better get firm answers on that when they decide whether or not to have it.

The most recent report i heard, the mortality rate is .04%. I'll take my chances with the virus before I take that vaccine. 

Derek

[Dave_Trible]

Not to belabor the point, I just read the flu death rate (I guess from last flu season) was about .1%.  The current Covid death rate is thought to be 5.9% , nearly 6 per 100.  Living in the region where quite a few go to the Ozarks each weekend to lake or party,  and having seen the videos of the huge party crowds there this past weekend on top each other with no thought of the virus, I'm going to be watching closely what happens in the next few weeks as these 'super spreaders' come back to family and work.

Dave

[SteveMoon]

I agree with Derek, should the Nats happen I will be there.
I also will not be wearing a mask. I will not live in fear.
Checking the mortality rates for COVID-19 yields several
different results. I just looked at two different sites with one
listing the rate at .4% and the other at 1.3%.

Steve

[Brett Buck]

Not to belabor the point, I just read the flu death rate (I guess from last flu season) was about .1%.  The current Covid death rate is thought to be 5.9% , nearly 6 per 100. 

   That's of diagnosed cases, which is a tiny, tiny fraction of the actual number of infected. No one has very good statistics on this, and you will only see the worst-case predictions because that is what supports draconian lockdown.

      What little real information suggests the infection rate is somewhere around 25-30%, ~90-100,000,000 exposed, for around 100,000 deaths, which is about, as stated above, about 0.1%.

     Brett

[Crist Rigotti]

I'll be there if we have a NATS.  No mask either.  Not living in fear either.

[Howard Rush]

I'll be there if we have a NATS.  No mask either.  Not living in fear either.

One reason for the success of this virus is that it’s contagious before its host gets symptoms. The reason for wearing a mask is so you won’t kill other people before you develop symptoms. So you guys will drive across the country handling gas pumps and rest area doors, then show up at the Nats without masks. I don’t think propagating the virus is particularly public-spirited or patriotic, but I’ll defend to the death your right to catch it.

[Derek Barry]

One reason for the success of this virus is that it’s contagious before its host gets symptoms. The reason for wearing a mask is so you won’t kill other people before you develop symptoms. So you guys will drive across the country handling gas pumps and rest area doors, then show up at the Nats without masks. I don’t think propagating the virus is particularly public-spirited or patriotic, but I’ll defend to the death your right to catch it.

The chances of catching the virus outside are almost zero! Heat and sunlight kill the virus in short order. However,  if you're that worried,  i would advise you to stay sheltered in the JCT dungeon. 

Derek

[Brendan Eberenz]

For the organizers, this seems like a Herculean task to get organized given the current COVID-19 related challenges. In watching this thread unfold, I realize that the AMA and organizers are wrestling with how to make adjustments that encourage safety, negate liability, and yet try to maintain the normalcy of the traditional Nats experience/operations. Unfortunately, even if plans are laid that would allow for the event, getting everyone to comply with the safety-related adjustments sounds like a fight waiting to happen with a lot of disgusted people. If the Nats are a go, I encourage people to focus on gratitude for the opportunity to come together for this event in whatever form it takes.

[Dave_Trible]

Brendan thank you so much for your kind words of encouragement.  Unfortunately we know this batch of hooligans and vagabonds well enough to expect what we have here.  It’s all good-I know they are discussing between them which of them will run this next year and who’s next the year after......

Dave

[Brendan Eberenz]

Brendan thank you so much for your kind words of encouragement.  Unfortunately we know this batch of hooligans and vagabonds well enough to expect what we have here.  It’s all good-I know they are discussing between them which of them will run this next year and who’s next the year after......

But Dave, if it gets cancelled, shouldn't you get the joy of leading the 2021 Nats. I would hate for COVID to have killed your opportunity to bask in the glory of successfully pulling off the event. I am sure all of the other guys waiting in line would not want to steal that experience from you.

All jokes aside, you hit the lottery of years to be running things. Thanks for hanging in there with all the "hooligans and vagabonds" clamoring.

[Wayne Collier]

One reason for the success of this virus is that it’s contagious before its host gets symptoms. The reason for wearing a mask is so you won’t kill other people before you develop symptoms. So you guys will drive across the country handling gas pumps and rest area doors, then show up at the Nats without masks. I don’t think propagating the virus is particularly public-spirited or patriotic, but I’ll defend to the death your right to catch it.

Well said. I continue to hear the not afraid comments from various directions (not just this forum). I think it misses the point. I wear a mask but not because of fear. I also wear seatbelts and watch my step. If it was only a matter of personal risk I’d say each to his own. In this case it seems to be shared risk to some extent. Impossible to say how much risk based on the media. Since we don’t know and masks aren’t that much of a bother I wear one. If it turns out to be a pointless effort, it hasn’t cost me that much in time or effort.

[Howard Rush]

However,  if you're that worried,  i would advise you to stay sheltered in the JCT dungeon.

The wine cellar at JCT Manor?  Good idea. My stunt work has put me way behind in wine consumption. You should stop by and help out. Wear a mask.

[Derek Barry]

The wine cellar at JCT Manor?  Good idea. My stunt work has put me way behind in wine consumption. You should stop by and help out. Wear a mask.

Air travel is cheap right now...  How do you drink wine through the mask though?

Derek

[Dan McEntee]

Air travel is cheap right now...  How do you drink wine through the mask though?

Derek

     Just poke a hole through to allow your Silly Straw to pass through. 

     When they announced that things would start to open up in my area, a reporter stated that restaurants would have limited seating and masks would be required. She was reminded that you can't east with a mask on.  The "oh yeah!" dumb look on her face was hilarious. I'm sure she wasn't told that, but it is what she reported. That's how sh*t gets started.

     I look at it this way. We know the numbers are being padded and misrepresented. I have read credible estimates that the accuracy of the testing kits can be as much as 40% off and if someone dies of some other verifiable cause, and they test positive, it's listed as a Covid related death. I figure there are one whole hell of a lot of the population that do not have the virus, like 99.8% . And in contracting it, it is more a less a really bad cold. It doesn't help the fear factor when every time we log onto a computer that we are bombarded with reports on how bad Chris Cuomo is still feeling!! There are a great majority of people that have been isolating at home since early March. that is approaching 3 months, and a typical medical quarantine period is usually 14 days! And at a minimum a vast majority have been isolated with minimum contact for two months. The experts that hey parade out are constantly adjusting their stories. Now it is reported that the virus can not live on surfaces as long as what was earlier reported. They are saying Certain things just to shock and scare people into doing what they want, and it's working. I wonder when the last time was that Faucci actually saw and diagnosed a patient? Most of these people are in administration because the schmoozed their way into those jobs to get out of the hard work. (I would like to use stronger language for this point but it is a family forum!)  There is a point where you want to say enough is enough! I had not planned on going to the NATS but stand with those that say if they can not go and participate in the manor that they have for the last umpteen years, shake hand with a hug a friend, have some pizza and ice cream with old buddies and bench fly with and coach some new comers, then why have the event. At the very minimum, having judges stand 6 feet apart through every step of what they are required to do is enough to complicate things .
  Type at you later,
  Dan McEntee

[Joe Ed Pederson]

One reason for the success of this virus is that it’s contagious before its host gets symptoms. The reason for wearing a mask is so you won’t kill other people before you develop symptoms. So you guys will drive across the country handling gas pumps and rest area doors, then show up at the Nats without masks. I don’t think propagating the virus is particularly public-spirited or patriotic, but I’ll defend to the death your right to catch it.

Howard,
I appreciate your desire to not spread the virus and I'll defend you're right to wear a mask to the death. 

But by your reasoning, your parents should have put a mask on your face shortly after you were born (babies stick their fingers in every source of bacteria and virus which they could pass on to others who might die of said bacteria or virus).  Every day of your life you should have worn a mask because every day of your life you could have come in contact or been a carrier of a bacteria or virus that might kill someone else.  And by your reasoning you should wear a mask every day for the rest of your life because it just might prevent someone dying from whatever bacteria or virus is killing people that day.

There is a place for face masks. Those with compromised immune systems (those undergoing chemotherapy, for instance), and with underlying conditions that put them at high risk, can wear masks.  When our son was taking chemo, we didn't ask the whole country to wear masks.  It made more sense for our son to wear a mask (which he did).  I willingly wore an N95 mask yesterday when I went into a VA clinic and a VA hospital because at 66 I'm a youngster in VA clinics and VA Hospitals and many of those inside those buildings are at high risk because they are in their 70's and 80's or more.

But sixty thousand people, give or take, die of the flu/pneumonia every year, and despite that fact, not even doctors and nurses have worn masks everywhere they went during the flu season in the past years.  And doctors and nurses are the ones most likely to come in contact with those most susceptible to dying of the flu.

So, wear a mask if you like, but ask yourself, "When can I take it off and be absolutely certain I won't possibly pick up something that will kill somebody else?"

Joe Ed Pederson
Cuba, MO

[Dave_Trible]

If you listen and look at real data from any legitimate scientific/medical source it is plain to see that if the virus case count is coming down it is BECAUSE of the social distancing and mask usage -not in spite of it.  I'm sorry but this thing has very little meaningful relationship to the flu.  It far more contagious.  There is NOTHING about any of this that we like.  It just seems careless and dangerous to try and ignore it.  You can do for yourself anything you like.  I like many others am forced to work in the public and daily come into contact with those who have no respect for our choice to try and dodge this bullet and give us some space.  We can actually get ticked off about it and the whole staff operates on edge.  We are asked to wear our employer-supplied PPE, and sanitize our work space four times per day to keep us healthy and not infect our customers.  It's working...........not fun but working........

Dave

[Shorts,David]

Here's what I'm gathering from California's regulations. If the Nat's were in CA, judges would have to wear masks (which for long periods of time can cause co2 build up). Launcher for the pilot could wear a mask. Pilot's meeting would be via loud speak of some sort, or pilots would have to wear masks if gathered close together. People in room for appearance judging would need to be limited to 25% of room capacity, which probably would be no problem from what I've seen, or else wear masks. Basically, if you're 6' apart, no need for mask. If that's not possible--mask. If indoor, then 25% of capacity is okay. This is according to CA's rules for business and services reopening.

Just thought I'd throw that out.

[Derek Barry]

Here's what I'm gathering from California's regulations. If the Nat's were in CA, judges would have to wear masks (which for long periods of time can cause co2 build up). Launcher for the pilot could wear a mask. Pilot's meeting would be via loud speak of some sort, or pilots would have to wear masks if gathered close together. People in room for appearance judging would need to be limited to 25% of room capacity, which probably would be no problem from what I've seen, or else wear masks. Basically, if you're 6' apart, no need for mask. If that's not possible--mask. If indoor, then 25% of capacity is okay. This is according to CA's rules for business and services reopening.

Just thought I'd throw that out.

Or you could move it to Georgia and run it normally. 

Derek

[Joseph Patterson]

Or you could move it to Georgia and run it normally. 

Derek

DAT'S a good idea Derek! We have a mini-version in Canton-Aug.
      Doug

[Steve Fitton]

This seems to be the feeling....

[Derek Barry]

This seems to be the feeling....

 

[Matt Colan]

This seems to be the feeling....

 

[Dave_Trible]

I was talking with Yolanda at AMA today.  In order to keep the group out of tight indoor spaces we will have one of the big tents like they use over on the RC fields set up at the LPad for our pilots meeting and appearance judging.  May also have the PAMPA meeting there.  The rest of the week it can be our ‘work hanger’ I guess.

Dave

[Rick_Huff]

Dave,
Make sure they don't set it up ON the L-pad 

Rick

[Dave_Trible]

Rick we could fly some ‘indoor’.

Dave

[John Paris]

I was talking with Yolanda at AMA today.  In order to keep the group out of tight indoor spaces we will have one of the big tents like they use over on the RC fields set up at the LPad for our pilots meeting and appearance judging.  May also have the PAMPA meeting there.  The rest of the week it can be our ‘work hanger’ I guess.

Dave

Dave,
Any thought on where would be best to keep the airflow similar to what we have been used to?
John

[Dave_Trible]

I figure to put it on the grass in the middle of the circle drive if it will fit, behind the pavilion from the pad.   Might be too big.  If so then likely on the other side of the road in the grass just east? of the gravel lot.  I don't think it will cause any wind issues there.

Dave

[Derek Barry]

I figure to put it on the grass in the middle of the circle drive if it will fit, behind the pavilion from the pad.   Might be too big.  If so then likely on the other side of the road in the grass just east? of the gravel lot.  I don't think it will cause any wind issues there.

Dave

I agree, the place where the scouts use to set up would be great, if it will fit.

Thanks for the updates Dave.

Derek

[Paul Walker]

The irony being missed is the virus cannot live in temps over 78F and high humidity. Being out doors is the safest place to be. Ultra violet kills germs, the sun gives of a LOT of UV.The chances of geyting Covid 19 out doors in the summer is minimal.  All my life I have read and been told,get lots of fresh air and sunshine, it's healthy. Indoors is NOT healthy.

I have heard this as well. But how does this fact sit with Brazil and Australia who were at the height of their summer when this broke out. Brazil is now in bad ways. How did the heat help them?

[Joe Bowman]

Hey Dave,  There was a huge tent set up in the grass area you are referring to in 2004 for the World competition and they left it up for the Nats that followed.  It was like a big circus tent.  Plenty big enough for what you need.  Some one at headquarters should remember which tent it was or where it came from.  Wish I could make it this year.

[john e. holliday]

Here's what I'm gathering from California's regulations. If the Nat's were in CA, judges would have to wear masks (which for long periods of time can cause co2 build up). Launcher for the pilot could wear a mask. Pilot's meeting would be via loud speak of some sort, or pilots would have to wear masks if gathered close together. People in room for appearance judging would need to be limited to 25% of room capacity, which probably would be no problem from what I've seen, or else wear masks. Basically, if you're 6' apart, no need for mask. If that's not possible--mask. If indoor, then 25% of capacity is okay. This is according to CA's rules for business and services reopening.

Just thought I'd throw that out.

What is the main reason for wearing a mask?  Ask those that work in thee operating room of a hospital.  Also those that work in emergency room in some situations.  It is used by people to keep what ever that person has being transmitted to another person.  I attended the local race track last Friday and very few people wearing masks.  I have a hard time understanding people with masks when talking to them.   If the old saying goes and the socalled [people in the know don't repeat it, "If you feel sick, have a fever, stay home".   My wife wears a mask at work because the people who are supposed to know something require it.   So if you see me and think I need a mask, just keep your distance.

[Shorts,David]

I want a mask with a CF frame and some Darma silk.  Perhaps somewhere in the framework someone could work in the pampa logo, or F2B. Now who's gonna make it and how much will it cost? Perhaps the silk can be removable with some light titanium or aluminum screws.

[Dennis Adamisin]

Procrastinators rejoice!

Just visited AMA site and they have extended the NATs entry deadline to 12-June,  2 days AFTER their target decision date of 10-June.


Looks like some of us (  ) are going to have to finish our new airplanes after all...

[Fred Underwood]

The irony being missed is the virus cannot live in temps over 78F and high humidity. Being out doors is the safest place to be. Ultra violet kills germs, the sun gives of a LOT of UV.The chances of geyting Covid 19 out doors in the summer is minimal.  All my life I have read and been told,get lots of fresh air and sunshine, it's healthy. Indoors is NOT healthy.

I tried to find a study that really gives the temperature.  I found this
https://www.bing.com/search?q=temperature%20to%20kill%20covid%2019&qs=ds&form=QBRE
and linked back to WHO
https://www.who.int/csr/sars/survival_2003_05_04/en/

The kill temperature may be higher than we tolerate 132.8F° (56°C) for 15 minutes.  The 78° may well be °C not F, and I'm already 98.6.  Some studies have shown that higher heat will decrease the time of heat exposure.  I didn't find much evidence based in actual medical studies.

I found some quotes that sunlight can take Covid virus viability from hours down to two minutes.  That sounds great until I think of a single droplet hitting you directly in the eye, mouth or nose only seconds, or less, out of its donors mouth.

[Dave_Trible]

Hey Dave,  There was a huge tent set up in the grass area you are referring to in 2004 for the World competition and they left it up for the Nats that followed.  It was like a big circus tent.  Plenty big enough for what you need.  Some one at headquarters should remember which tent it was or where it came from.  Wish I could make it this year.

Joe I wish you could make it too.  Glad you got past your medical mountain a while back.  I know its got to be better for you NOT to push your luck with this D#@N virus.
I got an email from Chad at AMA.  I guess the emails many may have gotten from AMA staff recently attempting to push folks into getting entered was not appreciated by the President or the Executive Counsel.  This was loose-cannon activity by some staff.  He said that the EC is about equally mixed right now on whether to go or not.  Though I still think it's premature with regard to the virus I see from the governor's website they plan to open the state 100% on July 4th-about a week before we would arrive, unless of course we see things happen to cause a pull-back.  Most everyone i've heard from in our 'family',  especially the older of us still think it would be better to cancel.  If they don't, WE youngsters will go have a Nats.  We've had the Toasted Nats, the Frozen Nats, the Corn Nats and now the Viral Nats.   We should build some Delta Darts for the tent like the old days in the Navy hangers........

Dave

[Dave_Trible]

For the"for what it's worth" category,  I am subscribed to the Indiana Governor's website and their Dept. of Health.  Received today in the email:

The state's disaster declaration was due to expire tomorrow June 4.  There has been a spike in new cases since the loosening with the count never really leveling off though the death count has slowed down.  Today the Governor extended the disaster declaration until at least July 4th.  It's hard to decipher the legal jargon but I think that leaves the stay at home order in place and puts the brakes on restaurants opening for inside dining or at least to full capacity.

Other data:  Their testing is up and they are finding a positive result rate of 12.9%.
There are more females with the virus than males.
Cases by age:

30-39   16.3%
40-49   17.2%
50-59   16.5%

Dave

[Andre Ming]

And OK's results are totally different. Scroll to the bottom for graphs/etc:

https://coronavirus.health.ok.gov/

Andre

[Dave_Trible]

Tick....Tock....Tick....Tock.....!

Dave

[Matt Colan]

 Are the betting windows open for whether the NATS will be a go or not?

[mike londke]

Are the betting windows open for whether the NATS will be a go or not?

Well.. Covid is over right?

[Brett Buck]

I note again - we need to know *exactly*, explicitly, what we will be expected to do and what special rules we will be expected to follow. Already, they are planning for some sort of "social distancing" - otherwise, why we would we need the tent - so I am even more concerned about what they are thinking.

      I want it to happen, but I want it to happen in a way that we can enjoy, rather than be an ordeal. It is not at all important to have a miserable week of being nagged just to give out a trophy.

     Brett

[john e. holliday]

Maybe like our local race tracks the distancing is up to the individuals.  I asked one gentleman why the masked.  He stated he had a cold and did not want to spread the germs.  I thanked him.  The people in the concession area using masks and gloves.  As stated before if you are sick stay home or protect other prople with mask and gloves.