The "forecast cone" started as going up the east coast, then it was a direct hit, then going up the west coast. This storm is still going due west. I really don't think the forecasters know anything. Thing is you cannot afford to take anything for granted but must prepare every time for the worst case scenario. Every June we inspect all hurricane supplies and replace whatever is necessary be it batteries, water, food, etc. I got a flat 2 days ago and had to replace 2 tires. They were 11 years old.