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Author Topic: Seeding  (Read 11192 times)

Offline peabody

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Seeding
« on: November 25, 2007, 05:02:26 PM »
Not your garden.....but flyers and judges at major events like the Nats.

I believe that a judges matrix should be posted at the beginning of the event......at the Nats, for instance, every judge should know his/her circle assignment BEFORE the first flight. Draw straws, or by height, weight or last name....NOT pre-seeded!

I also believe that seeding the flyers places a significant bias on the outcome.....




Offline Trostle

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Re: Seeding
« Reply #1 on: November 25, 2007, 07:29:06 PM »

(clip)

I also believe that seeding the flyers places a significant bias on the outcome.....


How does seeding "bias the outcome" other than seeding actually levels the flying field so that every compeititor has more of an equal chance of placing according to his ability rather than have the "luck of the draw" become a significant factor in the outcome of the results?

This is another of your myths you keep trying to perpetuate that some people accept becasue they keep hearing that there is some sort of a conspiracy or fix in how the Nats are run.

Keith Trostle

Offline Dennis Adamisin

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Re: Seeding
« Reply #2 on: November 25, 2007, 08:08:33 PM »

I also believe that seeding the flyers places a significant bias on the outcome.....


Sorry Rich, you got history PROVING this wrong.  The purpose of seeding the qualifying circles has always been to try to level the field as much as humanly possible before flying starts.  Sometimes it works better than others but it has ALWAYS - repeat ALWAYS - worked better than prior "random chance" methods...

Guess I do not know where you are going with posting the judges: is that so poeple can "get an edge" by knowing who the judges are before hand?  Similarly the judges should not care WHO is flying before them - just in scoring accuracies and errors the best they can.  I am missing the "fairness" attribute in what pre-posting is supposed to achieve?

Flyers and Judges are BOTH accountable to the rulebook descriptions of manuvers and errors.  Argueably, sometimes this works better than others; but it usually picks the correct semi-finalists and the correct National Champion. 

Only guarantee is at least 1 person will be completely happy with the outcome, while the rest look for... conspiracy theories!
Denny Adamisin
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Offline peabody

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Re: Seeding
« Reply #3 on: November 25, 2007, 08:35:40 PM »
I don't believe that history proves me wrong....it proves that some/one THINK that they can forecast the outcome of qualifications.

Random should be the game.

The field should be level for all......

Offline L0U CRANE

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Re: Seeding
« Reply #4 on: November 25, 2007, 08:37:17 PM »


...ah, never mind...

\BEST\LOU

Offline Howard Rush

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Re: Seeding
« Reply #5 on: November 25, 2007, 08:40:59 PM »
I did a crude analysis of contestant seeding awhile back.  My conclusion was that it didn't make a lick of difference.  I offered to show it to people, but nobody was interested in looking at it or doing any calculations himself.  Here you guys are arguing emphatically about how great or how awful it is.  Well, let's see some math.       
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Offline Dennis Adamisin

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Re: Seeding
« Reply #6 on: November 25, 2007, 09:26:19 PM »
The math has to do with a limited number of qualifiers coming from each pool of qualifying groups.  The NATs were DRIVEN to seeding by virtue that in prior years certain groups had 6-7 people who were capable of winning the NATs vying for 5 qualifying slots in a given circle, and other groups that had 3-4 spots open to anyone warm to the touch.  Seeding was an attempt (proven succesful) to level the field by evening all that out.

PLAN B: forget the mathematical models - try going back in time and RUNNING the NATs like it was prior to seeding (prior to 1974 I think) and I can all but guarantee you will not make it through the first day of qualifying before you realize WHY seeding was tried in the first place!

Remember that seeding has almost nothing to do with determining the Champion - it has MORE to do with what happens below maybe 6th or 7th place.  Howard, you mentioned a crude mathematical analysis - can you elaborate on your method of analsis and how deep into the placings did you go?  It has let more of the correct people into the semi-finals than the random-chance method

As for bias - if you want to eliminate that then go recruit & train some US Navy judges who have never seen a stunt pattern before.  Then prepare for the return of white pants, the "Blue Angels Stunt Team" and other such things!

Seeded fliers do not always prove worthy, unseeded flyers sometimes surprise, but to those of us still around from the last dice-roll NATs, the success and popularity (because of the improved equity in qualifying) is indisputable.
Denny Adamisin
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As I've grown older, I've learned that pleasing everyone is impossible, but pissing everyone off is a piece of cake!

Offline wmiii

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Re: Seeding
« Reply #7 on: November 25, 2007, 10:27:45 PM »


...ah, never mind...

My thought also

 Walter
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Offline Howard Rush

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Re: Seeding
« Reply #8 on: November 25, 2007, 10:52:53 PM »
"PLAN B: forget the mathematical models - try going back in time and RUNNING the NATs like it was prior to seeding (prior to 1974 I think) and I can all but guarantee you will not make it through the first day of qualifying before you realize WHY seeding was tried in the first place!"

I am unimpressed and unconvinced.  Gimme some (n-r)factorial stuff.  

Here's what I posted on SSW in 2004:

I did a simulation. I assumed 40 contestants. They were assigned at random to four circles in the 2003 Nats Wednesday-Thursday format. I ranked the contestants and assumed that a higher-ranked contestant would always place higher than a lower-ranked contestant. I did 10,000 runs with and without seeding the top eight to see how many times the 20th-ranked contestant would make the top 20 and how many times the 21st-ranked contestant would make the top 20. Here is the upchuck:

No seeding:
#20 made the top 20 5079 times.
#21 made the top 20 4009 times.

Seeding the top eight:
#20 made the top 20 4983 times.
#21 made the top 20 3668 times.

That's not quite what I expected. I might do some histograms and add some noise to the ranking to represent wind and judging and flying inconsistencies, but I have an airplane to build, so I probably won't. If somebody else wants to fiddle with this, I'll email him a copy of the Excel file. The macro is written in VBA.

I didn't check to see how fast this converges. I'll do 100,000 runs overnight and report the result tomorrow, maybe.

Edit: In 100,000 trials:

No seeding:
#20 made the top 20 56381 times.
#21 made the top 20 43962 times.

Seeding the top eight:
#20 made the top 20 55564 times.
#21 made the top 20 41222 times.


Lately, they've been using four circles at the Nats and picking the top five from each for the finals.  This may be what they did in the days of yore.  Seeding might have more of an effect in this case.  It ought to be a simple matter to prove it.  I can look for the program.  I never refined it, because nobody was interested.
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Offline Arch Adamisin

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Re: Seeding
« Reply #9 on: November 25, 2007, 11:23:48 PM »
I don't believe in the seeding process. I'd like to see it eliminated. It has no effect on who is going to win, the only ones affected are those few new faces that might end up in the top 20. Putting some different names on that list will not change who wins or damage the event but it might just inspire some of those first timers to work a little harder. Let's face it gang, second place is the first loser. After first place, nothing else matters. If you didn't fly well enough to win, why would it matter if you made the top 20 or not?

     Arch

Offline Rudy Taube

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Re: Seeding
« Reply #10 on: November 26, 2007, 12:29:49 AM »
Well done Mr. Adamisin .... In this crowd, That's like throwing gasoline on a fire! ;-)

I like your winner take all spirit, You must be an NFL coach???  LL~
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Offline Howard Rush

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Re: Seeding
« Reply #11 on: November 26, 2007, 12:41:08 AM »
Those of us in the lower echelon kinda like to know where we stand in the hierarchy.   If seeding removes some noise, it's probably worth doing.  It is especially worth doing if it would prevent the 15th-best guy from making the top 20 (for every guy encouraged by incorrect placing, at least one guy is bummed), but I doubt if it would. 

 
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Offline Trostle

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Re: Seeding
« Reply #12 on: November 26, 2007, 12:55:38 AM »
I have two comments based on the posts above from Arch Adamisin and Howard Rush.

1.  As to the comments from Arch and his statements about seeding having no effect on who is going to win.  Basically, I believe the system we have been using at the Nats for a number of years allows for the best flier at the Nats to win.  I think that most would agree that regardless if there is "seeding" or not, the single best flier will win, given the assumption that the judges are "competent" and that they do their job.  From one perspective, the purpose of the CLPA Nats is to determine who the National Stunt Champion is for that year.  But, there are 40 or 50, maybe more, maybe less, that have prepared for the year and then bother to go to the Nats to fly in the Open CLPA competition.  Most of those 40 or 50 know they will not win, but it is important to probably each of these individuals how well they place, not for some incongruous national recognition (when in actuality, very few care what the ranking is beyond the top 5 or 10 or 20), but the individual wants to know how well he performed.  It may be for "bragging rights" at his local flying field, or more importantly and most probably, it is for his own personal knowledge to know how he "ranks" among his peers.  So in this respect, it is important that the flying field is as level as possible so that some random circle assignments do not load up one group with particularly good fliers and another group is filled with comparative "duffers" prior to to the selection process to see who gets into the top twenty semifinals.  At least that was the case years ago when there were separate qualification circles where each group flew on only their respective qualification circle, in front of one set of judges, using the single best of two flights to determine a group to go on to the finals.  So, yes, we are looking to see who is the single best flier, but the Nats is also designed so that each competitor, regardless of his capabilities can have as fullfilling an experience as possible.  That is why there is a two day qualification process which could easily be done in one day if all we were doing is looking for the single best flier.  But that means that we would be back to the Pre-PAMPA formats where 30 to 40 people would get two flights on one day, with the chances of one of those flights being flown in weather, and their Nats experience with the year of preparation leading to it is finished with perhaps one consequential flight of less than 8 minutes.  So, the Nats are run to find the National champion, but it is run to fulfill whatever goals the other 50 or 60 individuals are seeking.  They deserve a level flying field and that is what the PAMPA Nats format that has evolved over the years has tried to accomplish.

Now, to respond to Howard:  In actuality, the format that is currently used at the Nats really makes the process of seeding unnecessary.  (In fact, I think, over the years, that seeding has not always been done during the qualification process.)  The reason that seeding has little effect on the outcome of our Nats is that even though each flier is assigned to a specific group during the qualification period, each flier in each group flies the same number of flights in front of the each group of judges.  So it makes little difference if one group has a preponderance of good fliers while another does not.  Each judge and each set of judges sees each flier the same number of times.  But if seeding is used, that means that each set of judges during each round that is flown in front of them will see something that resembles a more similar range in the quality of flights seen throughout each round than if the fliers are randomly assigned to each qualification group.  I would think that would tend to keep the judges a bit more alert to uniformly/correctly apply the range of their scoring from the particularly poor flights to the particularly good flights if seeding is done for the circle assignments.  Otherwise,  a judge, (not all - but some) might use a fairly narrow range of scoring through the day regardless of the overall quality of flights, and this same narrow range is used throughout each respective round.  (Some may raise their eyebrows on this and ask how can this happen since we are supposed to have really good, experienced and competent judges at the Nats.  Just let me say, it happens which is an argument to track how the judges perform during and after the Nats to determine who the best judges are to use during the finals round, whether it be the Open event or Advanced.)  And regardless of the myths generated by the myth makers, the "poorer" ranked judges in this process are not all relegated to the Advanced circle.  By the time the semifinals come around, some judges are relieved of their duties, but the quality of judges remaining is spread among the two groups.  And then, for the finals round, at least in the past other judges are relieved of their duties and the most competent continue to judge.  What the myth makers and those who subscribe to conspiracy theories do not comprehend (or choose not to comprehend as it has been explained to them on several occasions) is that considerable effort is taken by the Nats Event Director to balance the judges on the circles throughout the qualification process and for the judge assignments are made during the semifinals and finals rounds so that regionalism or the appearance of regionalism is minimized, and the known personal relationships between judges and the fliers - both favorable and unfavorable - and the appearance of such are minimized to the extent possible.  Those efforts are taken to avoid the very charges from the myth makers and conspiracy seekers that have been made about how the Nats are run.

Now, the following comment is not directed at either Arch or Howard.  I have not yet heard of an argument how seeding biases the outcome of our Nats.  Our judges do not know who is seeded.  There is no indication on their score sheets who is seeded.  Yes, the judges know the names of various fliers and may be familiar with the reputation of the flying capability of certain individuals, but the judges are oblivious to whatever seeding process might have taken place.

Now, let the myth makers and conspiracy seekers continue their rant, but they know not of what they speak.

Keith Trostle

Offline Bradley Walker

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Re: Seeding
« Reply #13 on: November 26, 2007, 10:57:40 AM »
Sorry Rich, you got history PROVING this wrong. 

I am sorry, Dennis.  *Nothing* that I know of has ever been PROVEN in about how to run a stunt contest.

You are an engineer.  You should know that...

In a subjective event you get subjective results.  Everyone sees a different outcome.

I think seeding sucks.  If for no other reason is *looks* like it *could* influence the outcome, even if it doesn't.

Seeding or more specially "graduating" the JUDGES has more influence on the outcome, in my opinion (it cannot be proven).  I here Paul is doing away with the practice.  Again, THANK YOU PAUL!!!
"The reasonable man adapts himself to his environment. The unreasonable man adapts his environment to himself, therefore all progress is made by unreasonable men."
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Offline Randy Powell

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Re: Seeding
« Reply #14 on: November 26, 2007, 11:32:09 AM »
>>I think that most would agree that regardless if there is "seeding" or not, the single best flier will win, given the assumption that the judges are "competent" and that they do their job.<<

And not with just the single best flight, but a series of great flights. I think that's important.

Seeding circles would probably keep a schlub like me from "sneaking" into the top twenty. And well it should. On the other hand (and another way to look at it) is, without seeding, I could end up on a circle with other schlubs while the top pilots got grouped together on another circle and so, have a chance to make a small splash. That could be fun. On the gripping hand, the point here is to pick the national champ and rank other pilots by order of accomplishment. Hmmm...
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Dave Adamisin

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Re: Seeding
« Reply #15 on: November 26, 2007, 05:15:26 PM »
Keith, thank you for the clear and reasoned presentation. It is in my opinion a representation of your commitment and years of experience. You will have to forgive me a dumb question - it's been a while since I last drove a stunter in anger. The last paragraph leaves the impression that even though the method used at the nats obviates seeding that it is still done. Is that true? Thanks

Offline Dennis Adamisin

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Re: Seeding
« Reply #16 on: November 26, 2007, 05:59:04 PM »

You are an engineer.  You should know that...


Oh man, Brad you didn't have to get PERSONAL about it.  Yes I'm and engineer but I've spent most of my life RISING above that!  Actually its worse, I'm an engineer with an MB-freaking-A!!!  HB~>  HB~> (meaning I cheese off everybody) VD~  n~

All seriousness aside, I do NOT have all the circle assignments available from 1973-74-75 time frame when NATs CDs were DRIVEN to seeding by events of the day.  I CAN tell you that seeding did not just "happen" because the NATs CD did not have enough to worry about.   It was HARD to explain why the circle with Rabe, Gieseke, "Champoine", Paul, Trostle & Werwage was no different than the circle with Dewey, Cheatum, & Howe. The accidental inequity of the sorting process spawned the idea to seed the qualifying circles.  Please understand no one needed or WANTED that grief!

I just hope that the sorting is done out in the open and not scripted in the pre-planning process before the event starts.  Maybe use the sorting hat from Hogwarts...  LL~

I am also REALLY curious to see how the bias will end.   ???  LL~
Denny Adamisin
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Offline Ted Fancher

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Re: Seeding
« Reply #17 on: November 26, 2007, 06:07:39 PM »
I don't believe in the seeding process. I'd like to see it eliminated. It has no effect on who is going to win, the only ones affected are those few new faces that might end up in the top 20. Putting some different names on that list will not change who wins or damage the event but it might just inspire some of those first timers to work a little harder. Let's face it gang, second place is the first loser. After first place, nothing else matters. If you didn't fly well enough to win, why would it matter if you made the top 20 or not?

     Arch

HI Archie, Good to see you posting.

If you believe that nobody cares about anything other than who wins you'd almost certainly be right.  No 1 isn't likely to not qualify to finish off the lesser mortals as the rounds advance.  There are a number of guys that take that position whenever the subject comes up.

They are, however, in a distinct minority.  Finishing in the top Twenty or, even more highly prized, the top Five is a "HUGE" deal to the vast majority of those that attend the Nats.  To them it provides a "gauge" of their progress and they are mightily concerned that the "process" by which those who will ultimately be ranked in those "hallowed" slices of competitors are selected. 

The entire process of the multi-day format and the procedures to administer it (including seeding) was intended to provide a means to do the selecting in as fair a way as possible for those "not number 1" flyers.  Let's face it, if no 1 was the only thing the competitors were concerned about we could hold the whole thing in one day, one round, winner take all.

I dare you to try that next July!  ~> ~> ~> ~^ ~^ ~^

Ted Fancher

Offline Ted Fancher

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Re: Seeding
« Reply #18 on: November 26, 2007, 06:27:31 PM »
Keith, Denny, et all.

Really, the only time flyer seeding is employed (or necessary) is for the qualifying process.

Once you accept the multi-day format and the whittling down of flyers from day to day the event changes from a "single best flight" scenario to one of continued excellence right down to the best two of three flights on top five day.  This means that a potential winner (a flyer that has the "goods") that has minor problems on days one, two or three can still get "in the race" on day four when the problem has been solved and win the whole magilla.

The value of seeding is to prevent the theoretically possible overpopulation of a single qualifying group (out of the four) that could (and has) resulted from random selection.  It is possible to randomly select the top ten flyers into a single qualilfying group which, by definition means that five of the best flyers will fail to make it to top twenty day.  Seeding of "known quantities" minimizes the chance of such a lop sided circle. 

And, yes, not seeding for the existing format could very well result in the guy with the minor problem (not enough to keep him from qualifying if the "talent" is distributed more equally) who won the imaginary event above from being in the mix come Top Five day.

The random selection scenario above could also result in top twenty places for five less talented flyers because they were in a circle which included none of the "extra" five known quantities in the "hard" circle.

Again, if all you're interested in is finding out who number one is, random selection isn't a big issue (the remote possibililty of the previously mentioned "extreme" scenario notwithstanding).  If, however, you want the final results from No 1 through No 20 to have any validity, come method must be used to balance the qualifying circles.

Ted

p.s. FWIW, I have no big problem with random selection of judges (with the sole exception of a judge clearly and verifiably acting to purposely elevate or crucify certain competitors).  I am, however, something of a minority when I've discussed the subject with event administrators.  Totally different philosophies.

Offline Shultzie

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Re: Seeding
« Reply #19 on: November 26, 2007, 06:30:35 PM »
Seeding competiton events has been around years and years and is still alive and well today.
 
  Way too many years ago...I was involved with the Ski Patrol at both Hood Meadows and at Timberline and  sadly, we often used seeding as a way of not only assuring all heats had an equal share of known winning competitors, but more importantly,  this help arrange the skiing order to help assure that the fastest racers were not handicapped with changes in the weather and snow condititons....Was this fair??? Maybe, Maybe not?

TALK ABOUT A HORNETS NEST OF COMPLAINTS.

Then again at Pacific University many of our tennis tournaments were also SEEDED to assure that not only the better players weren't  all grouped together...which risked having the majority of the name players eliminated before the final rounds. Usually in the end...the best players win...but hey!
 WE ARE ALL HUMAN BEINGS...AND EVEN THE BEST HAVE THEIR SO-SO NOT SO HOT MOMENTS and on any given day...(be it the luck of the draw, the wind, stir in equipment failure, brain glitches, etc etc)...
even the NERD-NEAR-DE WELLS can get lucky and  pull off that occational well deserved LUCKY STRIKE WIN. Also this assures more entries...and may increase the chances of an accidental LADY-LUCK DAY for folks with less expertise. WHATEVER???

SEEDING IS A WAY OF LIFE IN SO MANY SPORTS...be it Tennis, Golf, Skiing, car and boat racing...etc etc.
FAIR OR NOT!!! As a near-de-well competitor...in Kite flying I can assure you that SEEDING is often used...for many reasons but mostly to assure that $$$$ keeps coming in from the paying crowds that PLOP DOWN big $$$$ to see their famous and favorite big name players play in the finals...
be it TOY AIRPLANE CONTESTS... US OPEN TENNIS FINALS..OR PGA GOLF EVENTS.
BIG MONEY TALKS!
SEEDING ALSO ASSURES THAT THAT BIG $$$ WILL KEEP ON FLOWING to keep that crowd from bailing out early and goin home before the competitons are over or the finals are reached.

Howard Rush....VERY VERY INTERESTING INFO...AND THANKS FOR TAKING THE TIME TO SHOW THE NUMBERS?
 HB~> HB~> n~ n~ S?P VD~ H^^


Don Shultz

Offline phil c

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Re: Seeding
« Reply #20 on: November 26, 2007, 07:02:02 PM »
"Otherwise,  a judge, (not all - but some) might use a fairly narrow range of scoring through the day regardless of the overall quality of flights, and this same narrow range is used throughout each respective round.  (Some may raise their eyebrows on this and ask how can this happen since we are supposed to have really good, experienced and competent judges at the Nats.  Just let me say, it happens which is an argument to track how the judges perform during and after the Nats to determine who the best judges are to use during the finals round, whether it be the Open event or Advanced.  Trostle"

Keith,  I'd be interested in seeing exactly how judges performance have been tracked.  The only valid way to do this is to use some form of statistical analysis, perhaps of all the scores for each maneuver, each judge, and each pilot on a circle, taken as a group.  The worst possible way is to peruse the scorecards and try to make some sense of what each judge is doing and why.  Using a narrow scoring range is not per se a reason to question a judge's calls.  The real key is how consistently a group of judges agrees as to which maneuvers were better and which were worse.  Even then, given the vagaries of rules interpretation, a judge could very legitimately downgrade a maneuver that the other judges thought was good.  Even being consistently at odds with the other judges in a group is not necessarily mean that judge is wrong, but perhaps putting more weight in different areas, which is allowed by the rules.
phil Cartier

Offline Howard Rush

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Re: Seeding
« Reply #21 on: November 26, 2007, 10:38:37 PM »
Come now, Ted, show me how seeding could make any perceptible difference in who crosses the 20-21 divide.   
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Offline Bradley Walker

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Re: Seeding
« Reply #22 on: November 27, 2007, 11:08:58 AM »
Come now, Ted, show me how seeding could make any perceptible difference in who crosses the 20-21 divide.   

Howard, I think it is more of a "feel" thing.
"The reasonable man adapts himself to his environment. The unreasonable man adapts his environment to himself, therefore all progress is made by unreasonable men."
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Offline Marvin Denny

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Re: Seeding
« Reply #23 on: November 27, 2007, 11:47:25 AM »
Keith, Denny, et all.

 Ted, I do not know where you pulled up my name from all this argument!!  I have not (nor I EVER have) complained or harped the "seeding".  Please keep my name out of it.

  Marvin Denny
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Offline Ted Fancher

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Re: Seeding
« Reply #24 on: November 27, 2007, 12:20:03 PM »
Come now, Ted, show me how seeding could make any perceptible difference in who crosses the 20-21 divide.   

Howard,

You're kidding, right?

First scenario.

Random selection to circle one (of four) at the nats: Paul Walker, Orestes Hernandez, David Fitzgerald, Brett Buck, Randy Smith, Windy Urtnowski, Bill Rich, Frank McMillan, Rich Oliver, Doug Moon, Bill Werwage, Joe Bellcrank, Derek Berry and Harry Bellcrank.  Five top scores from Wednesday and Thursday advance to the top twenty.

Random selection to Circle two: Harry Bellcrank, John Bellcrank, Bill Bellcrank, Cynthia Bellcrank, Greg Bellcrank, Melinda Bellcrank, Oliver Bellcrank, Twisted Bellcrank, Junebug Bellcrank, Peter Bellcrank, Brother Darrel, the other brother Darrel,  and Ted Fancher.  Five Top Scores advance to the top twenty.

At least part of the outcome of each circle has been preordained by the seeding.

It is a certainty that at least five of the guys with names other than Bellcrank or Darrell will not make the top twenty in circle one; and an equal certainty that at least four from the family Bellcrank/Brother Darrell consortium will fly in the top twenty  in circle two.  That is math even I can understand.

Second Scenario.

All the Bellcrank family plus the brothers Darrell are split equally between the circles via seeding the entered flyers via performance to the best of the ability of the administrators.

All the flyers with other names are split equally between the two circles; seeded based on substantive and widely known past performance.


The outcome of neither circle is preordained via the seeding.

What could happen is that all or none of the "other named (i.e. seeded via past performance) flyers" could make the top twenty. Ditto, that all or none of the Bellcrank clan and the brothers Darrell could do so as well.  Who makes the top twenty will be based strictly on their performance within the seeded group with whom they compete on the qualifying days.

That doesn't seem hard to understand to me.

Ted

p.s. For those that perceive clandestine subterfuge (cheating) in even the suggestion of "seeding" I would point out that pretty much none of the Clan Bellcrank or brothers Darrell have much of a chance of seeing themselves in the top twenty if they are the randomly selected cannon fodder in the circle with the "famous" guys.  They might well b.i.t.c.h. that the circles weren't equally competitive.  In fact, it seems like I've heard that tale before.
« Last Edit: November 27, 2007, 01:20:25 PM by Ted Fancher »

Offline Ted Fancher

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Re: Seeding
« Reply #25 on: November 27, 2007, 12:21:30 PM »
Keith, Denny, et all.

 Ted, I do not know where you pulled up my name from all this argument!!  I have not (nor I EVER have) complained or harped the "seeding".  Please keep my name out of it.

  Marvin Denny

Marvin, meet Denny Adamisin.  Denny, meet Marvin Denny.

Sheeeeeesh.

Ted

Offline Trostle

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Re: Seeding
« Reply #26 on: November 27, 2007, 12:26:27 PM »
Keith, Denny, et all.

 Ted, I do not know where you pulled up my name from all this argument!!  I have not (nor I EVER have) complained or harped the "seeding".  Please keep my name out of it.

  Marvin Denny

Hi Marvin Denny,

I have not refered to you or your name anywhere in this thread.  If you will notice Dennis Adamisin has posted on this thread.  Ted was addressing his remarks to Dennis Adamisin, not you, Marvin Denny.  Furthermore, Ted would not refer to you by only your last name in this context.  Your name has been kept "out of it" until you interjected it.

Double sheesh

Keith Trostle

Offline Paul Walker

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Re: Seeding
« Reply #27 on: November 27, 2007, 01:16:52 PM »
As I am running the 2008  NATs, I can tell you what IS going to happen.

The qualifying rounds WILL be seeded so that all the top fliers are not on circle A and all the Bellcrank family is not on circle B. They will be distributed evenly. After the qualifying rounds are completed, the top 20 pilots will gather to draw circle order for the semi finals. Once the circle assignments are drawn, then the flight order will be drawn. So before the pilots leave the field Wednesday, they will know their assignments for Thursday. Then the judges will draw for their circle assignments as well. Note that the fliers and the judges will be the ones drawing the numbers, not the ED. When Thursday's flying is completed, the process will repeat for the finals, flight order and judging assignments. After the Open finals are done, the process is repeated for the Walker Cup Flyoff.

That's as random as I believe it should be. I fully believe that the top 20 is important enough to many of these fliers that have put up their time and money to get there that we should make sure they have a "fair" chance and not be hurt by a "bad" draw, so seeding the qualifying rounds will eliminate the "bad draw" issue. Bad wind, rain, earthquakes, tornado's, engine runs, etc, don't complain to me, complain upstairs.

Offline Bradley Walker

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Re: Seeding
« Reply #28 on: November 27, 2007, 01:32:24 PM »
How are you assigning judges for the later rounds?
"The reasonable man adapts himself to his environment. The unreasonable man adapts his environment to himself, therefore all progress is made by unreasonable men."
-George Bernard Shaw

Offline Ted Fancher

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Re: Seeding
« Reply #29 on: November 27, 2007, 01:40:25 PM »
As I am running the 2008  NATs, I can tell you what IS going to happen.

The qualifying rounds WILL be seeded so that all the top fliers are not on circle A and all the Bellcrank family is not on circle B. They will be distributed evenly. After the qualifying rounds are completed, the top 20 pilots will gather to draw circle order for the semi finals. Once the circle assignments are drawn, then the flight order will be drawn. So before the pilots leave the field Wednesday, they will know their assignments for Thursday. Then the judges will draw for their circle assignments as well. Note that the fliers and the judges will be the ones drawing the numbers, not the ED. When Thursday's flying is completed, the process will repeat for the finals, flight order and judging assignments. After the Open finals are done, the process is repeated for the Walker Cup Flyoff.

That's as random as I believe it should be. I fully believe that the top 20 is important enough to many of these fliers that have put up their time and money to get there that we should make sure they have a "fair" chance and not be hurt by a "bad" draw, so seeding the qualifying rounds will eliminate the "bad draw" issue. Bad wind, rain, earthquakes, tornado's, engine runs, etc, don't complain to me, complain upstairs.

Paul,

Certainly a good start and we agree (obviously) about the flyer seeding in the qualifying rounds.

I would, however, encourage you to reconsider the random selection of judges for later rounds for the following reason.  Can you imagine the hue and cry from predictable vocal sources if one of your volunteer judges (oh, just for an example, Ted Fancher) is randomly assigned to judge the Top Five and/or Walker Flyoff?  Especially if the competitors include names like David Fitzgerald, Brett Buck, Phil Granderson or, in the Walker Flyoff, Paul Ferrell?

What the agitators fail to recognize is that avoiding such assignments to the greatest degree possible is one of the primary functions of the judge seeding process at the Nats. Although I've no problem with flying before a randomly selected group of judges, I would, frankly, prefer "NOT" to be put in such a position as a judge.  The reasons are too obvious to waste time on.

 I would be perfectly happy to accept an assignment to judge other than the top twenty or finals day if doing so would make your life easier.

Ted 

Edited to remove unwarranted editorial comment.
« Last Edit: November 29, 2007, 08:07:53 AM by Ted Fancher »

Offline Ted Fancher

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Re: Seeding
« Reply #30 on: November 27, 2007, 01:41:04 PM »
How are you assigning judges for the later rounds?

Paul,

I rest my case.

Ted

Offline Marvin Denny

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Re: Seeding
« Reply #31 on: November 27, 2007, 02:13:19 PM »
Hi Marvin Denny,

I have not refered to you or your name anywhere in this thread.  If you will notice Dennis Adamisin has posted on this thread.  Ted was addressing his remarks to Dennis Adamisin, not you, Marvin Denny.  Furthermore, Ted would not refer to you by only your last name in this context.  Your name has been kept "out of it" until you interjected it.

Double sheesh

Keith Trostle

  I THOUGHT his name was Dennis???  I am the only Denny posting on this forum that I know of MR  Trostle.  Therefore it is natural that I thought  that I might be blamed for some statements in your petty little thread.   
tripple Sheesh to you too.

  Marvin DENNY
marvin Denny  AMA  499

Offline Howard Rush

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Re: Seeding
« Reply #32 on: November 27, 2007, 02:19:44 PM »
I wish to point out that snotty comments a few posts above (and snotty comments yet to come) were and will be posted by Howard Rush, not Rush Limbaugh. 
The Jive Combat Team
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Offline Howard Rush

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Re: Seeding
« Reply #33 on: November 27, 2007, 02:38:35 PM »
"You're kidding, right?"

No.  Calculate for me the probability of that skew happening.  Then calculate the effect on the 20-21 divide.  This can be calculated.  The crude analysis above convinced me that, for that case, the effect of seeding is negligible.  You won't convince me otherwise by arm waving. 
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Offline Chris McMillin

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Re: Seeding
« Reply #34 on: November 27, 2007, 02:59:29 PM »
I don't believe in the seeding process. I'd like to see it eliminated. It has no effect on who is going to win, the only ones affected are those few new faces that might end up in the top 20. Putting some different names on that list will not change who wins or damage the event but it might just inspire some of those first timers to work a little harder. Let's face it gang, second place is the first loser. After first place, nothing else matters. If you didn't fly well enough to win, why would it matter if you made the top 20 or not?

     Arch


That isn't exactly how I remember you feeling at the aborted end of the '93 Nats Qualifications. Both Archie and I were left out in the cold, both unable to recover when Bruce decided it was time for cocktails!
Chris...

Offline Shultzie

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Re: Seeding
« Reply #35 on: November 27, 2007, 04:21:20 PM »
OK!
THAT DID IT.....HOWARD! TED!....PAUL!!!!....or any of the rest of you Grunts!!!


TO END ALL THIS "SEEDING CON-TRO-PRO" I have an idea  for a loonie toon' to cap off this SEEDING THREAD or feel free to send me a few ideas for your own SEEDING TOON at:  donolddo@aol.com
 put perhaps all I will get is "phising-spam" but go for it
Don Shultz

Offline Paul Walker

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Re: Seeding
« Reply #36 on: November 27, 2007, 04:53:24 PM »
How are you assigning judges for the later rounds?

As I stated.....

Then the judges will draw for their circle assignments as well. Note that the fliers and the judges will be the ones drawing the numbers, not the ED. When Thursday's flying is completed, the process will repeat for the finals, flight order and judging assignments. After the Open finals are done, the process is repeated for the Walker Cup Flyoff.

Offline peabody

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Re: Seeding
« Reply #37 on: November 27, 2007, 05:19:28 PM »
Bravo on the Judge selection method....!!!!

edit spelling


Offline Wayne Collier

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Re: Seeding
« Reply #38 on: November 27, 2007, 05:30:06 PM »
Apples vs Oranges but I learned a lesson as a youth that stuck with me.  As a cub scout I participated in pinewood derby contests.  Some of you guys may have as well.  The "lesson" came after I was too old to compete but went to a regional meet to just watch.  Standard double elimination event.  As I watched not only the heats but the charts I had one of those epiphany moments.  The fastest car, barring some disaster, was going to get first place.  The second fastest car, barring some disaster, would end up in second place losing only one heat to the fastest car.  Placement after that was something of a toss up.  Depending on the line up, the size of the field, and where the cars were slotted, the third, fourth, or fifth fastest cars(etc) could easily have been eliminated from having faced both the fastest and second fastest cars as they progressed across the charts. Isn't seeeding supposed to help offset this kind of skewing?  Isn't it supposed to help insure that the top field of contestants is the top field?
Wayne Collier     Northeast Texas
<><

never confuse patience with slowness never confuse motion with progress

Offline Bradley Walker

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Re: Seeding
« Reply #39 on: November 27, 2007, 06:00:05 PM »
As I stated.....

Then the judges will draw for their circle assignments as well. Note that the fliers and the judges will be the ones drawing the numbers, not the ED. When Thursday's flying is completed, the process will repeat for the finals, flight order and judging assignments. After the Open finals are done, the process is repeated for the Walker Cup Flyoff.

I know that it must be something obvious...but you need less judges as you proceed, so I am still confused as to how you will determine who judges the Finals and subsequently the Walker Cup (which requires far less judges).  Are you saying the judges will *draw* to see if they *get* to judge the Walker Cup? 

If so, that's great!!!

No matter what, we APPRECIATE what you are doing Paul.  Bravo, and thanks.
"The reasonable man adapts himself to his environment. The unreasonable man adapts his environment to himself, therefore all progress is made by unreasonable men."
-George Bernard Shaw

Offline peabody

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Re: Seeding
« Reply #40 on: November 27, 2007, 06:07:55 PM »
Brad...
As I remember, ore judges are used as the week progresses:
3 per circle during two-day qualifying....=12
3 per Advanced Circle (the bad ones) and 5 per circle for Open on "Top Twenty Day".......= 16
Generally some have hissy fits because they have been denied judging the Walker Cup Open and are relegated to kiddie stunt....

Offline Dennis Adamisin

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Re: Seeding
« Reply #41 on: November 27, 2007, 07:21:47 PM »
  I THOUGHT his name was Dennis???  I am the only Denny posting on this forum that I know of MR  Trostle.  Therefore it is natural that I thought  that I might be blamed for some statements in your petty little thread.   
tripple Sheesh to you too.

  Marvin DENNY

OK, OK, time for us all to get our Sheesh together.   010!

I met Keith, Ted, Shultzie, (and lots of others) when I was routinely called "Denny".   H^^  Heck I met Jack Sheeks when I was still in single digits!

Marv & I met  just last year - uh, I introduced myself as Dennis!  H^^ I post my name here that way too.  Makes me sound like a grown up.


Just sorry I never had a REALLY cool aka like BigIron! 
Denny Adamisin
Fort Wayne, IN

As I've grown older, I've learned that pleasing everyone is impossible, but pissing everyone off is a piece of cake!

Offline Howard Rush

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Re: Seeding
« Reply #42 on: November 27, 2007, 07:35:03 PM »
Apples vs Oranges but I learned a lesson as a youth that stuck with me.  As a cub scout I participated in pinewood derby contests.  Some of you guys may have as well.  The "lesson" came after I was too old to compete but went to a regional meet to just watch.  Standard double elimination event.  As I watched not only the heats but the charts I had one of those epiphany moments.  The fastest car, barring some disaster, was going to get first place.  The second fastest car, barring some disaster, would end up in second place losing only one heat to the fastest car.  Placement after that was something of a toss up.  Depending on the line up, the size of the field, and where the cars were slotted, the third, fourth, or fifth fastest cars(etc) could easily have been eliminated from having faced both the fastest and second fastest cars as they progressed across the charts. Isn't seeeding supposed to help offset this kind of skewing?  Isn't it supposed to help insure that the top field of contestants is the top field?

Seeding works differently in one-on-one sports such as tennis or control line combat than it does in stunt.  If the best two players in a big single-elimination tennis tournament meet in the first round, one of them will tie for last place in the tournament.  If I understand Paul's plan, the top twenty at the stunt Nats are the best five from each of four groups.  The top 20 flyoff is like a new contest; qualifying scores aren't used.  No Nats champ contender will fail to make the top twenty unless five guys who fly better on qualifying days get dealt to his group of (approximately) ten.  Nats stunt seeding only takes a little randomness out of who among those close to the 20th-best line makes the top 20.  
The Jive Combat Team
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Offline Dennis Adamisin

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Re: Seeding
« Reply #43 on: November 27, 2007, 07:45:19 PM »
Paul

THANKS for posting your intentions for the NATs.  No quarrels with anything you posted.  CLP**

For the competitors, you see the CD's plan, you know what you have to do - just BRING IT.  8)  AP^
Denny Adamisin
Fort Wayne, IN

As I've grown older, I've learned that pleasing everyone is impossible, but pissing everyone off is a piece of cake!

Offline peabody

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Re: Seeding
« Reply #44 on: November 27, 2007, 08:13:11 PM »
Howard....
To throw the anal retentive a one, but keep some randomness what about seeding, say, the top eight from last year's Nats?

Advanced should be real easy to seed....the Expert flyers ahead of the Advanced bunch.

Offline Arch Adamisin

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Re: Seeding
« Reply #45 on: November 27, 2007, 08:16:26 PM »
Chris,
Funny you should mention that fiasco. My only complaint that day is the same today as it was then. There was plenty of time to finish the event and allow everyone to get all their flights. There were no concerns with the seeding process, only the fact that the ED decided that it had been a long day and it was over, even though it was in violation of the entry blank and AMA procedure. After I filed the protest, I was informed that the protest was rejected by the category director, Bev Wisnewski. I accepted this as true and we left. Two days later, I spoke with Bev and she informed me that she had NOT seen the protest and if she had, she would have agreed that the remaining flights should have been flown.

     Arch

Offline Paul Smith

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Re: Seeding
« Reply #46 on: November 27, 2007, 08:26:31 PM »
I think I can correctly identify BigIron 100% of the time and could probably score 75% in a name-the-Adamisins event, which is better than a lot of people could do.

This "seeding frenzy" makes interesting reading and I don't personally have a dog in the fight.  

The same issue was kicked around in the Combat world at times.  We had enough data to seed the flyers into quadrants and have a very pure "final four".  But the idea was never, to my knowledge, used.  Reason: the rank-and-file hated it.

In a totally unseeded world, the best man still wins.  However, somebody who is "less than great" still has a hope of getting lucky and placing a bit higher on the totum pole than he deserves.  If you have a bullet-proof seeding system that guarantees a "correct" top twenty, the 21st-35th guys will get the idea pretty soon and just stay home.   Better to allow a break once in a while and let somebody come in 18th place due a lucky draw.



Paul Smith

Offline Arch Adamisin

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Re: Seeding
« Reply #47 on: November 27, 2007, 08:34:52 PM »
Paul,
Thanks for sharing your plans. If I understand correctly, it sounds like the Walker Cup flyoff will finally be back the way it should be. 3 nat's champs competeing for the trophy, 1 junior, 1 senior, 1open, 2 flights each, high score wins?

     Arch

Offline Chris McMillin

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Re: Seeding
« Reply #48 on: November 27, 2007, 08:38:44 PM »
I remember when we got back to California later in the summer Bev asked me about it. I told her I was the "other guy" and she about flipped!
Just reminding you that it wasn't always about just winning first place! When it's our kids, placing well seems to mean a lot more.
Archie and I just wanted to redeem ourselves that day!
I think that is the reason the "balancing" result of seeding the flyers was started, and it probably works to the extent that if flyers known to be able to progress are in multiple circles with a split number of hot rods, the potential to move up is evened out.
I personally think statistical analysis of subjectively judged events is folly, but I have only been a flight engineer. What do I know! ;)
 
Chris...

Offline Chris McMillin

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Re: Seeding
« Reply #49 on: November 27, 2007, 08:41:09 PM »
Howard....
To throw the anal retentive a one, but keep some randomness what about seeding, say, the top eight from last year's Nats?

Advanced should be real easy to seed....the Expert flyers ahead of the Advanced bunch.


Whaa, Whaa, Whaa...give it a rest, Rich. You are the guys that want all of this skill level stuff at the Nats, and then you complain about it. That is really "rich".  Z@@ZZZ


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