I came up with the same list except for one name. My pick includes Minato. One of those 6 people will not make the top 5 and it will be very close.
I will admit that these were not exactly bold choices. We could have picked Paul, David, Orestes a year ago, and Derek is probably pretty predictable (although it's Top 20 day, during which many crazy things tend to happen). The remaining slot, just based on past experience, would have been between Chris R. Joe, Kaz, and Masuru. I am not much of one for scoreboard-watching when I am actually competing, but I can do the analysis, and Hiki-san was doing better relative to the other standard-bearers during qualifying. And I have other sources of information to go by. We'll see pretty soon, this contest is running on Pacific time after the delay.
Brett