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Author Topic: When did Appearance points change?  (Read 1119 times)

Online Ken Culbertson

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When did Appearance points change?
« on: December 10, 2018, 01:34:27 PM »
I have been doing a "just for curiosity" looking at the top 10 scores at the NATS and how they have been trending upwards(over 40 points since 2000) which is way up from the scores that I remember from the 60's and 70's in spite of the fact that we have 25 fewer available points.  I am sure that most of it is that we basically do our own judging now and the equipment is far better.  This is 100% for my own curiosity.  Anybody know if the NATS scores from the 60's on are archived anywhere?  AMA only goes back to 1998 and, since it doesn't have anything to do with drones, I doubt that they will ever put any of the old stuff back on the site. (They still don't have the 2018 scores posted)

Thanks - Ken
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Offline Brett Buck

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Re: When did Appearance points change?
« Reply #1 on: December 10, 2018, 03:02:07 PM »
I have been doing a "just for curiosity" looking at the top 10 scores at the NATS and how they have been trending upwards(over 40 points since 2000) which is way up from the scores that I remember from the 60's and 70's in spite of the fact that we have 25 fewer available points.  I am sure that most of it is that we basically do our own judging now and the equipment is far better.  This is 100% for my own curiosity.  Anybody know if the NATS scores from the 60's on are archived anywhere?  AMA only goes back to 1998 and, since it doesn't have anything to do with drones, I doubt that they will ever put any of the old stuff back on the site. (They still don't have the 2018 scores posted)

   A significant change in recent years is that the administrators have stopped selecting the judges based on tracking the individual raw scores, and instead just use what amounts to a "delta" from flight to flight. The previous method had the effect of removing judges that were routinely "high" or routinely "low" from the later rounds. The current method doesn't care about that, just that the individual scores go up and down with the aggregate of the others.

   I think the current method is probably more valid, but it has removed any psychological influence to try to keep your scores in the 535 range for fear of getting kicked out high or low. Add to that my belief that the flying has generally gotten better, with David and Paul driving each other (and the rest of us) to try to top each other, and more-or-less complete mastery of the equipment, and you get the scores creeping higher and higher.

    Brett

Online Dave_Trible

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Re: When did Appearance points change?
« Reply #2 on: December 10, 2018, 03:05:22 PM »
I can’t remember when the change happened- I’m thinking late 70s-surely before 1985.  Someplace there is a photo of Bart Klapinski standing holding his Nats winning Tempest in front of the scoreboard with a winning score of 492 I believe- during the ‘40’ appearance point period...........I think Dick Mathis and Bob Gieseke were in around the 2nd and 3rd spots if I recall from the photos.

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Online Ken Culbertson

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Re: When did Appearance points change?
« Reply #3 on: December 10, 2018, 03:21:14 PM »
I can’t remember when the change happened- I’m thinking late 70s-surely before 1985.  Someplace there is a photo of Bart Klapinski standing holding his Nats winning Tempest in front of the scoreboard with a winning score of 492 I believe- during the ‘40’ appearance point period...........I think Dick Mathis and Bob Gieseke were in around the 2nd and 3rd spots if I recall from the photos.

Dave
   A significant change in recent years is that the administrators have stopped selecting the judges based on tracking the individual raw scores, and instead just use what amounts to a "delta" from flight to flight. The previous method had the effect of removing judges that were routinely "high" or routinely "low" from the later rounds. The current method doesn't care about that, just that the individual scores go up and down with the aggregate of the others.

   I think the current method is probably more valid, but it has removed any psychological influence to try to keep your scores in the 535 range for fear of getting kicked out high or low. Add to that my belief that the flying has generally gotten better, with David and Paul driving each other (and the rest of us) to try to top each other, and more-or-less complete mastery of the equipment, and you get the scores creeping higher and higher.

    Brett
I think you are probably right as to the current trend and two really great fliers will raise the level for the rest of us.   I was unaware of the recent change in selecting the finals judges which is also a good thing.  All I have to do is watch the current hardware to know that it is far superior to what we flew in the 60's and 70's but there were some pretty good fliers back then too.  A 500 was a really good score and now it is not even good enough to get you bumped out of Advanced.  Again, this is all just curiosity.  Scores are just a way of putting flier "A" ahead of flier "B" and as long as it is fair, so what.  The only thing that bothers me is that we have pushed the entire group near the perfect score point and none of us are anywhere near perfect.

Thanks - Ken
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Online Ken Culbertson

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Re: When did Appearance points change?
« Reply #4 on: December 10, 2018, 03:34:04 PM »
I can’t remember when the change happened- I’m thinking late 70s-surely before 1985.  Someplace there is a photo of Bart Klapinski standing holding his Nats winning Tempest in front of the scoreboard with a winning score of 492 I believe- during the ‘40’ appearance point period...........I think Dick Mathis and Bob Gieseke were in around the 2nd and 3rd spots if I recall from the photos.

Dave
I got a personal invitation to take a 6 year vacation in lovely Southeast Asia in 1968 so I know it happened after that and I resumed flying in 1975.  I can't remember if it had already changed and I probably wouldn't have noticed if it had.  A lot of the fliers that were not around back then look at me a little funny when I talk about winning Open events with scores in the 400's.

Ken
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Offline Trostle

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Re: When did Appearance points change?
« Reply #5 on: December 10, 2018, 04:30:04 PM »
I have some rule books from previous years.  The 1973 rule book shows that there were up to 40 points for appearance based on Workmanship, Realism, Finish, and Originality with a minimum from each category of 4 points and a maximum of 10 points.  So, the minimum score would be 16 points.  This rule book gave criteria to be used as guidelines for each category.

The 1974-1975 rule book only two categories for appearance, Workmanship and Finish with a minimum of 0 and a maximum of 10 for each category.  Criteria were provided for each of these categories which were same as the two categories defined in the 1973 rules.

The 1976-1977 rule book showed the same categories for appearance as the 1974-1975 rule book and still showed the minimum of 0 and maximum of 10 points for each category but did not list any criteria.

The 1978-1979 rule book showed appearance points to be awarded between 0 and 20 points with no categories and no criteria.  The wording for appearance have remained the same since then.

That was only 40 years ago.

Keith

Offline Tim Wescott

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Re: When did Appearance points change?
« Reply #6 on: December 10, 2018, 04:55:40 PM »
I think you are probably right as to the current trend and two really great fliers will raise the level for the rest of us.   I was unaware of the recent change in selecting the finals judges which is also a good thing.  All I have to do is watch the current hardware to know that it is far superior to what we flew in the 60's and 70's but there were some pretty good fliers back then too.  A 500 was a really good score and now it is not even good enough to get you bumped out of Advanced.  Again, this is all just curiosity.  Scores are just a way of putting flier "A" ahead of flier "B" and as long as it is fair, so what.  The only thing that bothers me is that we have pushed the entire group near the perfect score point and none of us are anywhere near perfect.

Thanks - Ken

Having judged David, Paul, and others who are in that league at the NW Regionals, I think that scores in the high 500's to 600 or so is probably indicative of how far from perfection things are.  There are errors.  Interestingly, for the most part everyone has the same errors from the bottom of Advanced on up (Brett was going to go through the whole pattern listing typical errors -- I think he only got as far as the square loops, which I feel is a pity).  The difference between me and Paul Walker is that he has errors of a few inches and he's dead consistent; I have errors of a foot or so, except for the occasional maneuver that I manage to do brilliantly and the occasional one that I totally wad up.  You have to be on top of your game as a judge to see the errors that those guys make -- but they're there.  I'm not sure that a perfect score is going to happen, as long as we leave room at the top to down-grade the little mistakes.
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Offline john e. holliday

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Re: When did Appearance points change?
« Reply #7 on: December 10, 2018, 07:45:44 PM »
Remember fellows the judges back in the day were Navy judges who were recruited to sit in the hot son and decide if a person was doing the maneuver they saw and give it points.   D>K
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Offline Brett Buck

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Re: When did Appearance points change?
« Reply #8 on: December 10, 2018, 09:17:01 PM »
  All I have to do is watch the current hardware to know that it is far superior to what we flew in the 60's and 70's but there were some pretty good fliers back then too.  A 500 was a really good score and now it is not even good enough to get you bumped out of Advanced. 

   It really just means can't use the raw scores like that.

     I have absolutely no doubt that, given the same conditions and experiences, the past masters would be highly competitive or champions today, too. The requirements are largely the same, drive to succeed, willingness to work hard, etc.

But, by the same token, if you just teleported someone and their stuff from a 60's NATs to 2019, they would be in a world of hurt. People now have the advantage of *50 years* of additional work, development, knowledge.

     I am not quite prepared to say that those 500 flights of yore would still get 500's today, but I doubt that they would be competitive with David/Paul/Orestes, etc, now. Could be wrong, but I have some evidence from both my own experience, and others.

    That's not to trash those from the past, and we couldn't have gotten to 2018 levels of understanding without first having 1965 levels of understanding, but that's a hell of a long time ago and I know what we have learned since about 1978, and it's amazing.

Brett

Offline Ted Fancher

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Re: When did Appearance points change?
« Reply #9 on: December 10, 2018, 10:29:32 PM »
As a "veteran" competitor and judge since the mid 1950s, including competition at the Nats from as early as 1959 and 1967 (the year Bart won, Dick was second and Bob finished third with scores in the high 400s/low 500s) and then nearly continuous Nats from 1974 until, IIRC, 2006 I've been exposed to a lot of changes in scores in addition to seeing how the patterns appeared to earn those scores.  Believe me, the guys back in the early days flew some pretty decent stuff but it did tend to be more open and less aggressive styles that, given the rules then and now, probably influenced the judges to some degree (I've no opinion regarding the Navy judges in those two years I flew before them.  I'm sure they did their best but, given a lifetime of exposure to the very best fliers of their eras I don't feel those very low scores were representative of what would have been given by judges steeped in the genre.)

Post Navy hosted Nats scores trended higher but were still mired in the low to middle 500s as noted by other posters here.  Come the 2000s and on scores escalated noticeably until we now see low 600s reasonably regularly.  Yes, the top fliers are the best there has been in my life long exposure to the best.  No question about it.  Are, however, the flights receiving those scores that remarkably superior to those of the early big bore and tuned pipe era top guns?

Better yes...but not that much better.  Here's an important part of what I think happened in those transitional years from the 540s to the 600s.

For many years the "favored" method of judging was based on deviations from an "average" maneuver and judges were taught/inclined/tended to develop scores based on the assumption that an "average" maneuver was worth 25 point (halfway between the minimum of ten and the maximum of 40) and the ultimate score for any maneuver was based on adding/subtracting points from 25 based on perceived degree excellence (up to 40) down to all but "unrecognizable" (the rule book basis for scoring a maneuver as worth 10 points).  IMHO, one of the results of such a system was that something had to jump out as "super" in some manner or another in order to add to that "magic" average 25 maneuver but any perceivable flaw would result in deductions.

On the surface, this would appear to be a logical basis on which to evaluate performance and a great many contests were adjudicated in that manner for many years.

Just one problem that, if considered rationally, obviously makes such a system worthless for assigning numbers to maneuvers that have a rational basis.  No doubt the ranking (first through last) of fliers in  most contests was generally as accurate as  our current contests.  The numbers used to determine those outcomes, however, were often based on a flawed predicate.  That assumption was that the declaration of an average maneuver valuation of some random number between 10 and 40 had no foundation with regard to the rule book descriptions of the maneuvers being assessed.

The only description we have of "correct" maneuvers is the rule book description of perfectly flown ones...round, square, 45 degrees, sharp corners (yeah, right five foot radii), etc.

Based on that rule book description the only rational way for a judge to determine the value of a given maneuver is to deduct "value" for flaws he/she actually "observes" during those few to several seconds it takes to  perform them.  Every maneuver must be evaluated based on its accuracy with respect to the rule book's description of that maneuver and the 40 point maximum reduced.  Plain, simple and straight forward...but not easy!

Once the "average maneuver" concept is properly abandoned and judges concentrate on degrading from perfection there is no longer an "artificial half way to unrecognizable" starting value to each maneuver.  Judges must, to the best of their ability, decide how much errors they perceive must "decrease" the value assigned to the maneuver and not let the number on the score sheet represent pluses and minuses from an artificial starting point.

Our top fliers--pretty much from the development of the tuned pipe power trains (and later by the even more predictable electric power trains)--make damn few errors even under less than ideal conditions.  Properly powered and trimmed stunt ships of appropriate proportions and design flown by those top pilots are perfectly capable of flying maneuvers which will contain very few errors on difficult maneuvers and few if any detectable errors (within the ranges allowed) on easier ones and can do so even under conditions once thought to be "tough" to fly in! 

The bottom line to all this is that once the concept of average maneuvers was/is abandoned as a "starting" point for evaluation of maneuvers for which we have only descriptions of "perfect" ones it becomes much harder to degrade very good ones from excellent ones and the bottom line numbers will predictably rise accordingly.

Note that the competitions still remain extremely competitive with top fliers scores within fractional parts of percentages.  I contend that the numbers we see now reflect the reality as to how keenly and correctly human judges can discern and quantify the errors of very good to great fliers and the scores we now see are appropriate for the basis of evaluation provided by the rule book.

....Or not...

Offline Brett Buck

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Re: When did Appearance points change?
« Reply #10 on: December 10, 2018, 10:56:15 PM »
Our top fliers--pretty much from the development of the tuned pipe power trains (and later by the even more predictable electric power trains)--make damn few errors even under less than ideal conditions.  Properly powered and trimmed stunt ships of appropriate proportions and design flown by those top pilots are perfectly capable of flying maneuvers which will contain very few errors on difficult maneuvers and few if any detectable errors (within the ranges allowed) on easier ones and can do so even under conditions once thought to be "tough" to fly in! 

  To me, this is the clearest area where we are *vastly* better off than the supposed "Good Old Days". As we have both experienced, a good classic model with classic engine can be flown nearly at the same level as a modern one, in perfect conditions. I seem to recall one day with your Chizler, Big Art 35, and .014x60 solids, for example. I seriously considered borrowing it for the Team Trials a few weeks later.

   But in bad air there is really no comparison, and it's particularly glaring in high velocity/low turbulence conditions, like the 2015 NATs Top 20 day. Probably in the 20-25 mph range, and smooth, for the most part. Those were conditions where almost everyone would have just been holding on and hoping at some points in the pattern, and if you managed to get through successfully, you were probably going to win. With current equipment, you not only have to get through the pattern, you really can't and don't have to fudge it that much. My tendency is to overcompensate, unnecessarily, because I still remember how it used to be.

     Brett

Online Ken Culbertson

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Re: When did Appearance points change?
« Reply #11 on: December 10, 2018, 11:31:21 PM »
Having judged David, Paul, and others who are in that league at the NW Regionals, I think that scores in the high 500's to 600 or so is probably indicative of how far from perfection things are.  There are errors.  Interestingly, for the most part everyone has the same errors from the bottom of Advanced on up (Brett was going to go through the whole pattern listing typical errors -- I think he only got as far as the square loops, which I feel is a pity).  The difference between me and Paul Walker is that he has errors of a few inches and he's dead consistent; I have errors of a foot or so, except for the occasional maneuver that I manage to do brilliantly and the occasional one that I totally wad up.  You have to be on top of your game as a judge to see the errors that those guys make -- but they're there.  I'm not sure that a perfect score is going to happen, as long as we leave room at the top to down-grade the little mistakes.
Tim, in many ways you highlight the problem with scores approaching the maximums.  Each maneuver is scored separately and in theory you would award points differently to rank the fliers on that maneuver.  When the base scores approach 600 you only have on average  three points per maneuver to separate the whole field.  You can't rank 10-20 fliers with a three point range.  That also bunches the scores up so that there is only a point or two between places.  Every time you award 40 points on a maneuver you are saying that nobody has, or will ever do it better - tall order.  We are not there yet at the NATS but I do see a lot of Regional stuff littered with 600+ scores.  This is in no way a "rant", simply an observation from the cheap seats.  Nobody is questioning who is winning, they are clearly better.

Ken
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Online Ken Culbertson

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Re: When did Appearance points change?
« Reply #12 on: December 11, 2018, 07:09:19 AM »
As a "veteran" competitor and judge since the mid 1950s......I contend that the numbers we see now reflect the reality as to how keenly and correctly human judges can discern and quantify the errors of very good to great fliers and the scores we now see are appropriate for the basis of evaluation provided by the rule book.

....Or not...
I want to thank you and Brett for filling me in on when and why all of this happened.  I think that I agree with Ted that the scores now are actually more realistic than those of the past and do reflect a better overall pattern especially in bad conditions.  Having said that and having flown with the best during the late 70's and early 80's, they are not that much better, if at all, in good conditions.  The more I think about it, it is not that today's scores are too high, it is that those in the 60's-70's were too low.  We are still faced with the problem that approaching the 40 point limit has on a large field of really good fliers but maybe that is just the way it is.

Ken
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Offline Brett Buck

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Re: When did Appearance points change?
« Reply #13 on: December 11, 2018, 08:56:47 AM »
Having said that and having flown with the best during the late 70's and early 80's, they are not that much better, if at all, in good conditions.

    Not to argue with you, particularly, but there are things that classic and Super 70s can't do that more modern airplanes can -  particularly, clearly defining straight lines from very sharp turns without running out of energy by the ends of maneuvers. They got a lot better when people put modern super engines like the Aero-Tiger on airplanes that used to be flown with Foxes, but even then, not much chance in serious competition.

 It's a matter of opinion, of course, but for my money we have been operating in a new world since about 1988 or so, after Paul Walker put together all the elements that had been floating around for a while into a complete package and learned to make full use of it.

     Brett

Offline Tim Wescott

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Re: When did Appearance points change?
« Reply #14 on: December 11, 2018, 09:28:33 AM »
Each maneuver is scored separately and in theory you would award points differently to rank the fliers on that maneuver...

That's exactly what a good judge should do, IMHO.  If one of the top guys suffers a brain fart in the middle of the pattern and does a maneuver that belongs in Intermediate, I would sincerely hope that I, and anyone else judging, gets over their astonishment quickly enough to assign the exact same score that an intermediate flier would have gotten for that maneuver in intermediate.  By the same token, in Intermediate, if one of the guys there manages to fly one 40-point maneuver (which very occasionally happens, usually a landing), then they should get full points.  No one should see a maneuver and say "oh, but it's so-and-so at the handle" or "oh, this is such-and-such event" and give them more or fewer points than the maneuver itself deserves.
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Online Ken Culbertson

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Re: When did Appearance points change?
« Reply #15 on: December 11, 2018, 01:22:26 PM »
It's a matter of opinion, of course, but for my money we have been operating in a new world since about 1988 or so, after Paul Walker put together all the elements that had been floating around for a while into a complete package and learned to make full use of it.

     Brett
I wouldn't even consider arguing with you on anything that happened after 1982 until January of this year.  I was not able to do more than build a few sailplanes and escort a pair of talented athletic daughters to God knows how many Ice Skating and Swimming meets.  I started catching up in about 2010 and started flying again this year.  I really don't remember the lack of power in the maneuvers you mentioned.  Maybe it was the engines we used.  They were Fox and OS for the most part but they were the "blueprinted" versions or we just expected it and kept flying.  But, what leads me to think that you may be right is one of the problems I am having bringing my pattern back to the levels I was at.  All of my 8's except the vertical want to tighten on the 2nd 8 all on their own.  Now I know that it is really me but it is totally subconscious (now that I am running electric I have had to learn not to verbally express myself when it happens)  If I had learned the pattern and competed for 10 years or so with a plane that slowed down more in the second maneuver my internal timing is expecting it to take longer to get to a turn and I am overcompensating!  I have been trying for months to figure that one out. - THANKS.

Ken
« Last Edit: December 11, 2018, 01:40:40 PM by Ken Culbertson »
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