.
I think Brett hit the nail on the head - where would an "unknown" pool his comparisons from? Its not until you see guys like the previous winners Paul/ted/dave/brett/orestes ect.. that you realise how good they are and at what level you must compete at to win.
Winning locally means you can fly decent but top 20....
I was a minor exception to that, although there are a lot of caveats. First, it was 20 years ago and the depth of the field wasn't anything like it is now. Second, I flew against Ted and David pretty regularly, which means I had a pretty good idea what was needed. I had a relatively poor idea, however, of how I stacked up against that standard.
Another thing I learned, the hard way, was how difficult it was to sustain the performance for the entire week. David and I started first thing Monday morning and flew just about all day. By about 5 that afternoon, I was absolutely peaked, and I would have been competitive for a Top 10 and maybe a Top 5. Problem was that the contest didn't even start until Wednesday. By the time the qualifying started, I was dead tired, not able to concentrate, and had degenerated to the point that I was flying *much worse* than my average local flight. Things went downhill from there, I was hopping every single corner, and since I could see it, I was pressing to *fly better* and forcing everything, which of course made it worse. I squeaked into the Top 20 by a fraction of a point (sorry, Chris) and then ended up dead last among those who finished both flights on Friday for 18th. Thursday night McClellan and I were sitting there in our room, and I realized I couldn't see anything out of the left side of either eye.
The lessons I learned were manifold, but among them where:
I wasn't *nearly* as good as I thought I was
Most people flew A LOT better than I thought they did
You might get lucky from time to time at home, but if a few guys screw up at the NATs, there are 10 more guys that won't, and will beat you anyway.
A week is a very long time to try to operate at 100 percent of capability
After that, I stopped screwing around with my "theories" of "how it
should work" (which the late great Bill Netzeband would have loved), and instead started really looking at what it was going to take to actually win contests. With that in mind, I got progressively better at competing but it was a good 5-6 years before I was even in the mix. I sort of lucked into the Top 5 in 2000 (good fortune with the draw given the weather) and made a decent show of it. I missed in 01 and 02 narrowly. The last piece of the puzzle was getting an absolutely perfect engine run in 03, until I had a bearing failure in the good engine, but was still doing OK until some strategic mistakes in the wind on Top 20 day. I was a reasonably close 3rd in one of the most difficult contests ever held, the 04 NATs probably my best overall personal achievement.
Since then I have been competitive to varying degrees, but point is that I was a really good local expert in the hardest area in the country, the best help available, and had the technical aspects down cold, and it STILL took me a good 10 years to really get my act fully together to even be a legitimate contender for a win. You can't get any bigger halo than being the defending NATs champ, didn't help at all in 07 - but flying better sure would have. That's what makes the "runs" people get on - Paul and David - even more amazing. Winning this thing 5 times in a row is just stunning if you know how hard it is to do it even once.
People have consistently underestimated what it takes to be successful in this event. I thought I was ready to go in 93, but I was at least 3 plateaus short of the real hotshots. Most of the people you hear griping about halos, conspiracies, etc., never got past that.
Brett