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Author Topic: Almost Lost Discovery  (Read 2077 times)

Offline phil c

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Almost Lost Discovery
« on: April 19, 2012, 01:21:23 PM »
I came across this story, which I'd never seen before.  With the shuttle Discovery finishing her final flight, apparently it was almost lost from the same foam damage problem that destroyed the Challenger.  The complete back story is on Wayne Hale's blog.  Wayne was in the shuttle program as a Shuttle Flight Director, Shuttle Program Manager, and Deputy Program Manager for 40 years, so he knows his stuff.

http://waynehale.wordpress.com/2012/04/18/how-we-nearly-lost-discovery/

The Challenger died when a large piece of foam blew off the hydrogen tank during ascent, knocking holes in a couple of tiles that failed during re-entry.  After 2 and half years of research they thought the problem was solved, caused by imperfections in the foam as it was applied.  The Discovery flew again, and the new safety measures caught a picture of the foam failing in exectly the same way as on Challenger.  The new safety cameras showed the foam didn't cause any damage to the tiles and the Discovery returned safely.  It wasn't until just before the Discovery's next flight that they discovered the real cause!  almost by accident..

Phil C.
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Offline Mike Keville

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Re: Almost Lost Discovery
« Reply #1 on: April 19, 2012, 01:47:48 PM »
Got the names mixed-up there.  'Challenger' exploded during ascent (1986) when an O-ring let go on one of the SRBs, venting flame into the huge fuel tank.  'Columbia' was the one lost on re-entry (2003) due to foam strikes destroying some of the tiles.
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Offline Brett Buck

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Re: Almost Lost Discovery
« Reply #2 on: April 19, 2012, 02:28:08 PM »
.  'Columbia' was the one lost on re-entry (2003) due to foam strikes destroying some of the tiles.

   Not exactly the tiles. The tiles are made of spun silica and look for all the world like a white and rigid Scotch-Brite pad. Basically silica fibers assembled into a mat about 3" thick, then fired to melt the fibers together, theh cut to shape. They have the general feel of heavy styrofoam. The ones on the bottom of the wing and fuse are black because they have a solid black ceramic fired onto the outside. Those got damaged frequently - essentially every flight - by some sort of flying debris, but that is not what killed Columbia. You can very easily poke your finger into the bare white tiles or just crush them in your hand, and it's not that hard to poke a hole through the crust on the black-coated tiles, although you would need a pretty strong finger.

   What caused the issue on Columbia was a strike of ice-impregnated polyurethane foam hitting the leading edge panels and knocking a hole in them. They aren't tiles, they are what is called RCC - reinforced carbon-carbon, basically solid carbon plates. It's the same as they use for racing and airliner brakes. It's very solid and pretty heavy.  The silica tiles would not stand up to the heat at the LE or the nose. The foam, soaked with water from standing outside in the rain, then frozen from the cryogenic fuel that it is there to insulate, broke loose at just the wrong time and place, was accelerated by the relatively high dynamic pressure, and struck the LE RCC panels. That knocked a hole in it. It is believed at least a few loose bits then fell of and floated away once they reached orbit and zero-g very early in the flight. On re-entry, the hole allowed hot plasma into the wing, which is just plain 2024 aluminum underneath it all and it started melting away the internal structure, until the wing came off, sending it out of control and shortly thereafter, breaking up from dynamic pressure.

   The structural problems started *very* early on the entry, and significant parts were being shed at absurdly low Q at least as early as crossing the CA coast.

    Point of minimal interest - the building where the tiles were developed and manufactured (early on) is right across the street from my office and I can look at it right now. The just tossed the scrap in the dumpster and just about everybody on the campus had some of it at one point or another. Or flown and damaged tiles. The material was absolutely common and cheap silica sand, they didn't even bother to figure out how to recycle it, it was so cheap. I think a dump truck full would make about 3 shipsets, and they may have gotten it from a local building supply source. The lightest version was about 9 lb/cu ft, about like medium balsa.

   Brett


Offline john e. holliday

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Re: Almost Lost Discovery
« Reply #3 on: April 20, 2012, 08:24:26 AM »
We are lucky that we have not lost more good people in the space program.  Thanks for the story. H^^
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Offline John Stiles

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Re: Almost Lost Discovery
« Reply #4 on: April 20, 2012, 08:33:38 AM »
Thanks Brett, I often wondered the sequence of events that cause the Columbia disaster, things like that weigh heavy on the heart, that and "Challenger".......I wondered long and hard why the shuttle design didn't include a cockpit escape pod. Thanks again for the explanation! H^^
John Stiles             Tulip, Ar.

Offline John Rist

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Re: Almost Lost Discovery
« Reply #5 on: April 20, 2012, 09:47:01 AM »
Thanks Brett, I often wondered the sequence of events that cause the Columbia disaster, things like that weigh heavy on the heart, that and "Challenger".......I wondered long and hard why the shuttle design didn't include a cockpit escape pod. Thanks again for the explanation! H^^

I am sure it was a weight vs safety trade off.  Having worked on space qualified electronic black boxes low weight and low power were the two major driving factores.  I suspect cost came in third as a consideration.  We had a saying at SCI (the company I worked for) Small, fast, cheep - pick any two (referring to electronic black boxes).  Given the enormity of difficulty in putting a pound is space - couple this with difficulty of keeping a person alive in space I think that NASA's shuttle program was nothing less than amazing.  If you consider how many got killed with man learing to fly the loss of life on the shuttle compaired to what it accomplished is amazing - not acceptable - but amazing.

Look at the unnecessary loss of life on the Titanic - now that was a true $ driven Disaster.
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Offline Derek Barry

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Re: Almost Lost Discovery
« Reply #6 on: April 20, 2012, 09:52:13 AM »
   Not exactly the tiles. The tiles are made of spun silica and look for all the world like a white and rigid Scotch-Brite pad. Basically silica fibers assembled into a mat about 3" thick, then fired to melt the fibers together, theh cut to shape. They have the general feel of heavy styrofoam. The ones on the bottom of the wing and fuse are black because they have a solid black ceramic fired onto the outside. Those got damaged frequently - essentially every flight - by some sort of flying debris, but that is not what killed Columbia. You can very easily poke your finger into the bare white tiles or just crush them in your hand, and it's not that hard to poke a hole through the crust on the black-coated tiles, although you would need a pretty strong finger.

   What caused the issue on Columbia was a strike of ice-impregnated polyurethane foam hitting the leading edge panels and knocking a hole in them. They aren't tiles, they are what is called RCC - reinforced carbon-carbon, basically solid carbon plates. It's the same as they use for racing and airliner brakes. It's very solid and pretty heavy.  The silica tiles would not stand up to the heat at the LE or the nose. The foam, soaked with water from standing outside in the rain, then frozen from the cryogenic fuel that it is there to insulate, broke loose at just the wrong time and place, was accelerated by the relatively high dynamic pressure, and struck the LE RCC panels. That knocked a hole in it. It is believed at least a few loose bits then fell of and floated away once they reached orbit and zero-g very early in the flight. On re-entry, the hole allowed hot plasma into the wing, which is just plain 2024 aluminum underneath it all and it started melting away the internal structure, until the wing came off, sending it out of control and shortly thereafter, breaking up from dynamic pressure.

   The structural problems started *very* early on the entry, and significant parts were being shed at absurdly low Q at least as early as crossing the CA coast.

    Point of minimal interest - the building where the tiles were developed and manufactured (early on) is right across the street from my office and I can look at it right now. The just tossed the scrap in the dumpster and just about everybody on the campus had some of it at one point or another. Or flown and damaged tiles. The material was absolutely common and cheap silica sand, they didn't even bother to figure out how to recycle it, it was so cheap. I think a dump truck full would make about 3 shipsets, and they may have gotten it from a local building supply source. The lightest version was about 9 lb/cu ft, about like medium balsa.

   Brett



I was fairly certain that some of the tiles for the spacecraft were made here in Augusta at Thermal Ceramics???

Derek

Offline Chris McMillin

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Re: Almost Lost Discovery
« Reply #7 on: April 20, 2012, 11:16:10 AM »
When I was racing airplanes I sat in on a discussion Hoot Gibson was having with a few guys about one of his missions with a similar damage problem to Columbia's on the RCC panels. He was really up front and used salty language about NASA, their policies and the fact that he had a comm channel open to the world to tell what was up if he lost signal to certain systems in the affected area. And he told the flight director he would do it.

It always amazed me that no direct pre-re-entry inspections were performed on the Shuttles until after the Columbia break-up.

Chris...

Offline Brett Buck

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Re: Almost Lost Discovery
« Reply #8 on: April 20, 2012, 11:19:14 AM »
I was fairly certain that some of the tiles for the spacecraft were made here in Augusta at Thermal Ceramics???

Derek

   Lockheed developed them and made them all early on. Later, when it turned into a regular production job, someone else did it. Ultimately it wasn't all that difficult or complex job to manufacture the material. The machining took a little while to figure out because each one was different depending on position. Later still, many of the tiles on the upper surfaces of the fuse (where the heating was not particularly high)  were replaced with blankets.

    Brett
« Last Edit: April 20, 2012, 04:22:00 PM by Brett Buck »

Offline Brett Buck

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Re: Almost Lost Discovery
« Reply #9 on: April 20, 2012, 11:46:08 AM »
Thanks Brett, I often wondered the sequence of events that cause the Columbia disaster, things like that weigh heavy on the heart, that and "Challenger".......I wondered long and hard why the shuttle design didn't include a cockpit escape pod. Thanks again for the explanation! H^^

   Cockpit escape pods don't work very well, and are very heavy. For it to be of any use, it has to more-or-less be a separate complete spacecraft all by itself. On the way up you have to handle everything from ground level to nearly orbital velocity/altitude. If you abort just short of orbital velocity, you might be up there for 45 minutes, and then have to do essentially a full reentry sequence, meaning heat shield, parachutes, some sort of attitude control, oxygen, scrubbers, etc.  With solid motors, early on in the boost you have to also consider how you get out of the way of the rest of the stack, since abort thrust termination takes a while and leaves a lot of debris to escape. Doable but far from trivial and every ounce takes away from payload. You can see what sort of a fireball you have to escape from looking at Challenger. In fact, on that one, the crew compartment *did* stay together to sea impact, although it is expected that most or all were unconscious from the original shock of the breakup. That was on one very narrow set of conditions,  and you would still have to have had some sort of parachute for this HUGE chunk and some way of stabilizing it before chute deployment. Higher and you need a heat shield just for abort.

     Boost stage escape systems on Mercury and Apollo took essentially the entire crew compartment off at 20Gs for the entire 1st stage firing, and the escape motor was ejected shortly after 1st stage cutoff. After that you just flew the same capsule back down, including on Apollo, possibly canning the second stage and going to orbit with just the third stage and SM propulsion, just SM propulsion, or canning the whole thing, using the SM motor to do a retro burn and then coming back - all the way to aborts they did on Apollo 13 where they used the LM propulsion. If the failure on Apollo 13 had happened on Apollo 8 (no LM) they all would have died very soon, same thing if it happened AFTER a landing on the way back.

     Gemini was different in that it had no escape system. Just ejection seats for a limited portion of the boost. Same as the Shuttle test flights where they had ejector seats for the flight deck. Both were very limited capability and the one time the flight rules said they needed to eject (Gemini 6 pad abort), they didn't.

    The Russians have a similar abort system to Mercury/Apollo and have used it at least once.

     On the way back in, there has never been much of a failure tolerance. If the heat shield was damaged you were dead. Soyuz and Gemini have contingency "loss of attitude control" mode that that comes into play if the attitude control fails, and instead of flying a lifting entry, they do a ballistic rolling entry. That raised the re-entry loads from maybe 6 Gs to upwards of 13-14Gs. Normally they fly it at an angle to the airstream due to a CG offset, and then roll it until it is "nose-up" to extend the landing/reduce the G loads, and "nose-down" to shorten the landing/increase the G loads. Apollo flew "head down" to start until they slowed enough to not skip off, then rolled to a constant 6gs, rolled "head up" head-down at reduced G, then back down to 6Gs as I recall, then adjusted from there to hit the carrier target.

      For Orion it goes back to very much like the Apollo system with a Soyuz-like escape tower. I don't work Orion (now, anyway) but I would bet they are going to do the same flown re-entry as Apollo, with a back-up rolling entry for orbital missions. I would bet that you can't do a rolling entry from escape/lunar speeds, too much Gs/too narrow a window. Last I saw, the first manned Orion test flight was going to be circumlunar.

    Brett

 p.s. the real problem with Columbia (and the other shuttles) was the side-mounted orbiter, externally-insulated tank, and the TPS designed with NO tolerance for debris hits. The specification for the tolerable debris hits was ZERO, i.e. there was no requirement to tolerate damage, and a hard requirement to prevent debris hits for everything else. They saw hits from the first flight and in reality it was decently robust with not-infrequent pitting and occasional airframe damage around the tiles. The RCC is pretty tough to bird strikes (at the altitude you get birds, the speed is still low) and other damage, too, but obviously not bulletproof. The tank insulation was on the outside where it both was prone to damage, could flake off, and could get wet then frozen into blocks of ice. And of course the denser it got from water absorption, the more like it was to separate under vibration and load. You can put the tank insulation on the inside or outside - the Saturn V 2nd stage had it on the outside and the third stage on the inside - but the shuttle tank had it on the outside, mostly because it was easier. Of course on the Saturn V, even if the foam shed (which it almost certainly did), it *didn't matter* very much. If it sheds off the Shuttle tank, most of the places it doesn't have much effect, but on the "upper" surface near the nose, the foam can hit the orbiter TPS. Even then, if it's dry, it still probably doesn't hurt anything since its so light. If it's saturated with water, different story, as we saw.

    They convinced themselves that since they had had a bunch of hits in the past, it didn't matter, and they didn't pay excess attention to the problem. Even after they saw the hit, they figured it was just likely to be a maintainence problem. And in any case, there wasn't any fall-back position, they were going to run out of supplies if they stayed on-orbit and waited for an emergency (unplanned) rescue mission. And the chances of throwing together a rescue entailed substantial risk all by itself.

« Last Edit: April 20, 2012, 12:39:24 PM by Brett Buck »

Offline Derek Barry

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Re: Almost Lost Discovery
« Reply #10 on: April 20, 2012, 12:00:07 PM »
   Lockheed developed them and made them all early on. Later, when it turned into a regular production job, someone else did it. Ultimately it wasn't all that difficult or complex job to manufacture the material. The machining took a little while to figure out because each one was different depending on position. Later still, many of the tiles on the upper surfaces of the fuse (where the heating was not particularly high) the tiles were replaced with blankets.

    Brett

Oh, thanks for the info.

Derek

Offline Derek Barry

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Re: Almost Lost Discovery
« Reply #11 on: April 20, 2012, 12:01:09 PM »
   Cockpit escape pods don't work very well, and are very heavy. For it to be of any use, it has to more-or-less be a separate complete spacecraft all by itself. On the way up you have to handle everything from ground level to nearly orbital velocity/altitude. If you abort just short of orbital velocity, you might be up there for 45 minutes, and then have to do essentially a full reentry sequence, meaning heat shield, parachutes, some sort of attitude control, oxygen, scrubbers, etc.  With solid motors, early on in the boost you have to also consider how you get out of the way of the rest of the stack, since abort thrust termination takes a while and leaves a lot of debris to escape. Doable but far from trivial and every ounce takes away from payload. You can see what sort of a fireball you have to escape from looking at Challenger. In fact, on that one, the crew compartment *did* stay together to sea impact, although it is expected that most or all were unconscious from the original shock of the breakup. That was on one very narrow set of conditions,  and you would still have to have had some sort of parachute for this HUGE chunk and some way of stabilizing it before chute deployment. Higher and you need a heat shield just for abort.

     Boost stage escape systems on Mercury and Apollo took essentially the entire crew compartment off at 20Gs for the entire 1st stage firing, and the escape motor was ejected shortly after 1st stage cutoff. After that you just flew the same capsule back down, including on Apollo, possibly canning the second stage and going to orbit with just the third stage and SM propulsion, just SM propulsion, or canning the whole thing, using the SM motor to do a retro burn and then coming back - all the way to aborts they did on Apollo 13 where they used the LM propulsion. If the failure on Apollo 13 had happened on Apollo 8 (no LM) they all would have died very soon, same thing if it happened AFTER a landing on the way back.

     Gemini was different in that it had no escape system. Just ejection seats for a limited portion of the boost. Same as the Shuttle test flights where they had ejector seats for the flight deck. Both were very limited capability and the one time the flight rules said they needed to eject (Gemini 6 pad abort), they didn't.

    The Russians have a similar abort system to Mercury/Apollo and have used it at least once.

     On the way back in, there has never been much of a failure tolerance. If the heat shield was damaged you were dead. Soyuz and Gemini have contingency "loss of attitude control" mode that that comes into play if the attitude control fails, and instead of flying a lifting entry, they do a ballistic rolling entry. That raised the re-entry loads from maybe 6 Gs to upwards of 13-14Gs. Normally they fly it at an angle to the airstream due to a CG offset, and then roll it until it is "nose-up" to extend the landing/reduce the G loads, and "nose-down" to shorten the landing/increase the G loads. Apollo flew "head down" to start until they slowed enough to not skip off, then rolled to a constant 6gs, rolled "head up" at reduced G, then back down to 6Gs as I recall, then adjusted from there to hit the carrier target.

      For Orion it goes back to very much like the Apollo system with a Soyuz-like escape tower. I don't work Orion (now, anyway) but I would bet they are going to do the same flown re-entry as Apollo, with a back-up rolling entry for orbital missions. I would bet that you can't do a rolling entry from escape/lunar speeds, too much Gs/too narrow a window. Last I saw, the first manned Orion test flight was going to be circumlunar.

    Brett

   

Great stuff Brett, I could read this kind of stuff all day.

Derek

Offline Steve Fitton

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Re: Almost Lost Discovery
« Reply #12 on: April 20, 2012, 12:01:37 PM »
Didn't I read that you were using a shuttle tile scrap as a heatshield for your VF-40 header?
Steve

Offline Brett Buck

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Re: Almost Lost Discovery
« Reply #13 on: April 20, 2012, 12:04:56 PM »
Didn't I read that you were using a shuttle tile scrap as a heatshield for your VF-40 header?

  No, that would be crazy. We used it for insulation on a Dyna-jet plane.

    Brett

Offline John Stiles

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Re: Almost Lost Discovery
« Reply #14 on: April 20, 2012, 04:06:23 PM »
Thanx again Brett, good info, makes for interesting reads. H^^
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Offline Larry Cunningham

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Re: Almost Lost Discovery
« Reply #15 on: April 20, 2012, 04:07:26 PM »
Well, of course the real failure of the Shuttle Program was never turning a profit on space, paying its own way, etc. as it was originally sold to our idiot Congress to beg funding..

I saw the Shuttle land at White Sands (Northrup Strip), STS-3 on March 30, 1982. (A college pal got us "press passes" for his school newspaper..). Turned out to be the only landing at WSMR, although I believe the 747 transporter landed on Holloman at least once. It was an awesome experience, well worth staying up all night before and camping in the building at Northrup for half of it.

A shame the program had to end; it was long in the tooth and needed replacement. But I wonder if we'll ever see any serious effort. Pie in the skyers here in southern NM figure Virgin Galactic is going to start transporting rich cats to the edge of space any time {year} now, from our "Spaceport".  I hate to sound scroogy about it, but I think we'll simply end up with a very nice small local airport, with a strange "spacey" terminal building that resembles part of a woman's anatomy. Ultimately, I suspect a casino might rescue it, after they kill a few space tourists and/or drop a stray rocket racer into downtown Las Cruces.. Plenty of runway for beautiful people in their Gulfstreams and Lears to land and stop over to enjoy beautiful downtown Upham, New Mexico!

(Hey, they recently had a photo session with an extremely expensive sports car next to the new terminal building. I tell ya, there's money to be made!)

JMNSHO.

L.

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Offline Brett Buck

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Re: Almost Lost Discovery
« Reply #16 on: April 20, 2012, 04:44:44 PM »
Well, of course the real failure of the Shuttle Program was never turning a profit on space, paying its own way, etc. as it was originally sold to our idiot Congress to beg funding..

     It was pretty obvious to all involved that wasn't ever going to happen, at least with the GIGANTIC orbiter and all that entailed. Every time the dev/construction cost went up, they upped the proposed flight rate to amortize the cost. At one point there may have been 400 flights a year proposed - more than ONE A DAY.

   We wound up with a huge orbiter, side-mounted, because of one mission requirement from the Air Force - 60000 lb, 15 feet diameter, polar orbit, deployed on the first rev and return to original launch site (Vandenburg). The size and weight of the payload, into a polar orbit, dictated a large orbiter with gigantic boosters. The return to launch site requirement meant a 1500 mile cross-range requirement, meaning a gigantic lightly loaded delta wing to be able to make the turn (since the Earth rotates under the spacecraft in the 90 minutes of flight, even though it left from Vandenburg originally, it has moved to the East by the time you get back). This in turn was dictated because Carter required that ALL spacecraft be Shuttle-launched, and there would be no other boosters used. A far better plan would have been to knock out the "corner cases" like this particular Air Force payload, and keep a few big disposable rockets for that (Titan IV), and design to a 75% use rate. Smaller orbiter, smaller booster (probably a fly-back since it doesn't have to be so big) a few hundred miles cross-range so small wings so larger payload fractions and reduced thermal loads. Just enough maneuverability  to flare for landing.

   Curiously, someone did build something like that, several times in fact - Gemini/paraglider and X-37.

    Gemini came as close to a practical "operational" system as has yet been achieved. Gemini and "Big Gemini" were reliable and inexpensive ways to get up and down, even to the point that it could have been extended to lunar missions. Soyuz is pretty close to a Gemini in terms of capability. Gemini was the last of the 3 (Mercury, Apollo, and Gemini) to be designed and was meant to address the problems found in Mercury. In many ways Gemini was more sophisticated than the Apollo CSM and certainly more cost-effective for orbital missions. It was a little cozy but that was solved with Big Gemini and the various combinations of Gemini, Agena, and cargo attachments.

   The big cost on Gemini was the water landing. They tried to make it land on land with a Rogallo wing but that got canned due to schedule constraints. Apollo was also supposed to land on land, but the parachute development lagged and that was also canned. Recently I think it got canned for Orion, as well, for mostly the same reason.

    If I was financing my own space system I would look at Gemini as a starting point over Apollo.

     Brett

Offline Steve Fitton

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Re: Almost Lost Discovery
« Reply #17 on: April 20, 2012, 06:08:37 PM »
Somehow I don't think the rogallo wing is ever going to work.  Since the X-37B works just fine, thats probably just as well.

I thought the math worked out that the piece of foam from the bipod ramp was quite sufficient to punch a hole in the RCC without being iced?  Would the bipod ramp get cold anyway, isn't it over the intertank area?
Steve

Offline BillLee

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Re: Almost Lost Discovery
« Reply #18 on: April 20, 2012, 10:46:01 PM »
"Gemini was the last of the 3 (Mercury, Apollo, and Gemini) to be designed "

Brett, is that actually so? Since Apollo was the follow-on system to Gemini, I would have thought the order was Mercury -> Gemini -> Apollo.

Bill

PS: Thanks for bringing a bit of fact and accuracy to the htread. My son was deeply involved in the Columbia investigation and he gave me a copy of the NASA report on it. It was engrossing reading.
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Offline Bill Heher

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Re: Almost Lost Discovery
« Reply #19 on: April 21, 2012, 01:36:45 AM »
I remember being at the Udvar-Hazy Annex to the Smithsonian Air and Space Museum after the Columbia tragedy, the 2 sections of wing leading edge from the Enterprise test shuttle were removed.

Next visit the parts were back on, but with big repairs to holes/impact damage from the investigation. The repairs were easily visible since they had not been painted black yet. I would bet if you looked close now you could still see them. They were good size, maybe 12" x 12" at least.
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Offline Brett Buck

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Re: Almost Lost Discovery
« Reply #20 on: April 21, 2012, 04:27:55 AM »
"Gemini was the last of the 3 (Mercury, Apollo, and Gemini) to be designed "

Brett, is that actually so? Since Apollo was the follow-on system to Gemini, I would have thought the order was Mercury -> Gemini -> Apollo.

Bill

PS: Thanks for bringing a bit of fact and accuracy to the htread. My son was deeply involved in the Columbia investigation and he gave me a copy of the NASA report on it. It was engrossing reading.

      Mercury was a sort of crash program just to get someone up, quick as possible, and see if humans could function at all. Apollo was pretty loosely defined at nearly the same time, mostly just that it would be three people with some sort of mission, but that would obviously take longer since it was more capable and there were no boosters that could lift it. Once we had committed to a moon landing, Apollo was the obvious place to start working, but it was till undefined how. They started with the idea of direct ascent, meaning a huge rocket to launch the entire stack straight to the moon, then come directly back. In that scenario the CSM rode the stack and was landed by a landing stage, then took straight off from the moon.

    It quickly became clear that this was unlikely to get done in time, so they started looking at ways to use smaller rockets, like the relatively dinky Saturn V(!). All of those meant linking up the parts with multiple launches somewhere, meaning they had to figure out how to rendezvous and dock, and to spacewalk. The most most obvious was to launch it in parts from the Earth, assemble in Earth orbit, then send the whole thing to land on the moon, then have it take off and come straight back. That still took multiple launches from the ground of large rockets. The other way was the way it was done, launch all the parts, only land the smallest part on the moon, take it back off, then send the return capsule back by itself. That could just squeak in with one Saturn V launch.

   Either of these latter schemes required rendezvous and docking in space. They had to keep going to with apollo and saturn for the actual thing, but they had to keep learning how to do stuff without diverting too much effort, so they came up with Mercury Mark II, which was intended to be just a blown-up version of Mercury with two guys (so one could practice EVA and develop EVA equipment, since you are going to have to operate with a spacesuit in a vacuum on the moon) and with some maneuvering capability (to develop rendevous and docking). Mercury was absurdly limited, it really was just about a spam in a can deal. Once you launched it, it had *no* maneuvering capability, whatever orbit the booster left you off in, that was the one you had. Mercury Mark II added a limited capability but it was quickly obvious that you needed something more, so Gemini expanded and was the last to be fully developed.

    So, it was Mercury, Apollo, and Gemini - at least as far as the main parts came alone. The last thing in this sequence to fly, of course, was the Lunar Module, so arguably it was after Gemini. The EOR or Direct Ascent didn't need a lunar module, you ended up landing the entire stack on the moon with at least two landing stages (a lunar crasher that slows you down and is then discarded, and a lunar soft landing stage like Surveyor), no lunar orbit. The crasher and soft landing stages were HUGE. Once you were ready to come back, the CSM took off directly from the moon and went straight back to Earth. That's why the Apollo Service Module was so big and had such a large engine - had to lift straight off the moon.

     Any of these schemes could have worked and all would have required some intermediate stage - Gemini, Apollo Block I - to be done before the landing. Probably only LOR, as done, could have been completed in the time available because the development of even a small light lander proved to be devastatingly difficult. Direct ascent would have required larger and larger boosters as the weight went up and we might still be trying to build one big enough.

     BTW, while Gemini was in progress it became clear that you could pretty easily and cheaply do a circumlunar and lunar orbit mission with Gemini technology and even a one-man landing mission with a little additional work. Launch an Agena, launch a Titan with Transtage, launch a manned Gemini, dock it with the Agena, then dock both of them with the Transtage, use the transtage to do the TLI, then use the Agena to enter and leave lunar orbit, and then come back. For a landing, use two transtages, and add another element, a one-man "open-air" lander that looked like a lawn chair with rocket motors. There was serious lobbying for the circumlunar Gemini+ flight in around 1966-67 but that was stopped for various reasons and the closest it ever got was the Gemini 11 flight to 850 miles using Agena as a booster.

      Brett


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