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Author Topic: OT-Russian Launch Abort  (Read 2974 times)

Offline Brett Buck

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OT-Russian Launch Abort
« on: October 12, 2018, 06:45:16 PM »
In case no one noticed, a very unusual manned booster abort happened the other day. The Russian Soyuz booster had some sort of a failure, and the launch was aborted, leaving the cosmonaut and astronaut to separate from the booster and come back very prematurely. There is a very good video of the launch (complete with clueless NASA narrator who doesn't get the idea even after the Russian English narrator notes it correctly) here:

https://spaceflightnow.com/2018/10/11/watch-a-replay-of-the-soyuz-launch-and-abort/

   It's a very nice launch video, super-high quality and a nice clear day. Clear enough to see at least some very interesting things, particularly starting at about 2:38. The first stage of the rocket (largely unchanged since the Sputnik launch in 1957) has a core module, skinny, surrounded by 4 liquid-fuel boosters. They are all running at launch, then the boosters run out fuel and are jettisoned. The core keeps going for a little while, then is supposed to separate and the second stage start.

    At about 2:38, the launch escape tower can be seen shooting away, this is normal. Sortly later at about 2:45, they are on the interior video, and you see them get jerked side to side, which is completely unexpected, and can only be the result of the entire stack being torqued sideway for some reason. Cutting to the exterior, you see the boosters separate. Normally this is nice and symmetrical, this one, some of them look about right, and others are spinning wildly after the separation. At 253, the remaining stack can be seen still thrusting but is DRASTICALLY aimed the wrong direction, heeling over to strongly to the left of track, peaking out at about 2:56 at an alarming angle (probably over 45 degrees) and then recovering by about 2:58, when they cut to the animation. They go back to the video, and you can see it is still in trouble at 3:25, when it is heeled over to the right of track. That, too, suggests some serious problem, because that's far too long to be still be oscillating if everything was working normally after separation. Eventually, it either shuts itself down or fails entirely and they are free-falling.

     At that point,  I am not entirely sure what the Soyuz abort sequence is at this point. The escape tower is gone, so presumably, they separate the Orbital/Reentry/Service module at a single unit, move away under service module propulsion, then ditch the orbital module, separate the reentry from the service module, then reenter and recover more-or-less normally. In this case, the press made a big deal about the "ballistic" reentry and the fact that it made it up to 7Gs, but that's normal for a suborbital flight, Mercury/Redstone (Shepard and Grissom) both had about 14Gs, and that is much more than re-entering ballistically from orbit (since it slows down earlier at higher altitudes/lower air density, and some of the energy is removed compressing the air without a lot of force). It's slightly higher than a normal Soyuz orbital reentry, since instead of "ballistic" it has a slightly lifting reentry, basically, using an offset to the direction of travel, sliding slightly "sideways", which reduces the loads. It's 6g's, maybe, which is about what Apollo had from escape velocity, but Apollo was a much better lifting body. The more lift, the lower the acceleration - it's the inverse of the hypersonic lift/drag ratio. The shuttle had maybe 3.5Gs, peak, but that was higher than the minimum, on purpose, they made turns to bleed off speed so it didn't drag itself in halfway around the world, and to be able to control the landing point more accurately.

    What exactly happened, I can't tell, but it was likely some sort of failure in the core section structure, maybe around the booster thrust frame, causing one of the boosters to hang up, or, it was still burning (due to a failed shutdown signal) when the others separated. It's not obvious to me which way it might go with one booster still attached and thrusting, depends on where the core CG is. At that point, one might expect the light core and fully-fueled upper stages to put the CG ahead of the booster attachment point, mening it would turn into the booster, basically, turning in front of it. It will be very interesting to see what it was - if we ever get the full story from the Russians

    Brett


Offline Jason Greer

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Re: OT-Russian Launch Abort
« Reply #1 on: October 12, 2018, 07:24:47 PM »
Thanks for the explanations, Brett. It’s nice to hear some technical input from someone in the know. I’m sort of a space nut, especially the early stuff, so I find this stuff fascinating. I saw that there was an abort yesterday and that fortunately there was no loss of life.

I’ve watched some onboard videos of a normal Soyuz ISS undock and re-entry. It’s amazing what all has to go right during that process.
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Offline Dan McEntee

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Re: OT-Russian Launch Abort
« Reply #2 on: October 12, 2018, 07:38:26 PM »
    I guess I am a typical American, and have always wondered about the quality of their space program and equipment. Like you say, the Soyuz has been around a long time, but you would think some advancements and refinements have been made through the years?  I haven't been exactly hanging out by the TV lately, but haven't seen anything on the news shows I've watched, and just read snippets of information on line. Sounded like the recovery area was pretty remote and took a while for rescue crews to get to them? Do you think this might open up some opportunity for the private enterprises to make their way into the manned launches? One question just leads to another!!! I would imagine that the abort procedures changes depending on altitude and time from lift off? I would bet that some improvising had to take place due to the nature of the failure? Or at some point in time did some one just press a button and hope for the best? From what you described, I think those were two pretty lucky guys! And I'm thankful that they are safe.
   Thanks for the insight, Brett.
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Offline Tim Wescott

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Re: OT-Russian Launch Abort
« Reply #3 on: October 12, 2018, 07:45:09 PM »
Thanks for the report, Brett.  I'd heard about it, but just said "huh" and moved on.  Your insights are fascinating.
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Offline Brett Buck

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Re: OT-Russian Launch Abort
« Reply #4 on: October 12, 2018, 09:12:50 PM »
    I guess I am a typical American, and have always wondered about the quality of their space program and equipment. Like you say, the Soyuz has been around a long time, but you would think some advancements and refinements have been made through the years?

      Some of the avionics/control equipment has been updated or replaced due to obsolescence, but the basic design is about as it always has been since the R-7/Sputnik days. As rocket performance is generally measured, it's extremely inefficient and rudimentary, but it also is rudimentary that it doesn't require extreme precision. Where we would have (and did) attempted to optimize it, they avoided sophistication on purpose in favor of ease of production.

   As an example of the rudimentary nature, for a long time, the Soyuz could only be launched from Baikonor, because the *guidance system* was designed and manufactured only for the latitude of the launch site. I think, in fact, that the mounting hardware for the inertial navigation system was machined to match the launch site latitude, and also maybe for a particular pad azimuth, because it had to be lined up with true north and local vertical. They have a modern strapdown inertial system now, so they can launch it anywhere. This also suggests that each  R-7 ICBM *had to be purpose built for a particular launch site and target*.

    They had an early lead in the space age, not because they had some special knowledge, but because they could only build big and heavy warheads, so they built a giant (for the time) rocket for them We, instead, knew we would have smaller ones soon enough, so didn't build the (for the time) huge boosters, just built relatively small ones. Same thing with engines, we kept designing larger and larger engines (up to the 1.65 million pound F1 on the Saturn V) to make bigger boosters. The Russians used *30* smaller engines and just lived with the complicated plumbing. Unfortunately for them, controlling such a beast was beyond them, and all 4 attempted launches of their lunar booster ended with some sort of control or plumbing failure. If they had kept going, they would have gotten it eventually.

     Overall, the Soyuz and the Space Shuttle have similar reliability records. Two fatal flights each, about the same number of total flights, and about the same number of failures and close calls. More total fatalities on the Shuttle, of course, but that's because it was vastly more capable. These are the only two manned systems that have enough flights to have very good statistics. I think Apollo/Saturn had a predicted catastrophic failure rate of about 10%, and that's roughly what they got, one outright failure (13) and several close calls (Apollo 12 and 16 - first from lightning, second from multiple hardware failures in flight), and the pad fire. Gemini/Titan was about the same, with one failure (8). Gemini was as close as it ever got to an "operational" system as opposed to one herculean/heroic  effort after another.

    Interestingly, the spacecraft is almost always the source, there was never a Saturn 1b mission failure, one serious Saturn V failure (SA-502, unmanned test flight, failed second stage engine that caused two engine failures) and one non-impacting failure (engine failure on 13 due to pogo). All the Titan boosters (for Gemini, at least) worked. That makes sense, the spacecraft is much, much more complex than the booster, and the same is virtually always true of satellites and other unmanned launches, the payload is orders of magnitude mode complex, and has to last longer than 15 minutes.


Quote
  I haven't been exactly hanging out by the TV lately, but haven't seen anything on the news shows I've watched, and just read snippets of information on line. Sounded like the recovery area was pretty remote and took a while for rescue crews to get to them? Do you think this might open up some opportunity for the private enterprises to make their way into the manned launches? One question just leads to another!!! I would imagine that the abort procedures changes depending on altitude and time from lift off? I would bet that some improvising had to take place due to the nature of the failure? Or at some point in time did some one just press a button and hope for the best? From what you described, I think those were two pretty lucky guys! And I'm thankful that they are safe.

    The abort type and sequence definitely depends on point in the mission. Off the pad an up till (apparently) booster cutoff, it is accelerated off the rocket by an escape tower:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=36&v=t7LTdfBfOVY  (booster caught fire, escape tower pulls the capsule to safety).

  Once the tower and shroud is jettisoned, it's some variant on what happened here. I don't know for sure what sequence they use, but, they have to get the descent module separated from the rocket and from the orbital and service modules. I think that in this case, the engine is shut down and they just separate the descent module from the service, then dump the orbital module. In other cases, they use the service module propulsion to fly away from the booster, then do a normal re-entry.  Only the descent module has heat shields and parachutes, the other two parts are discarded on every flight.

   I think that probably nothing is improvised at all, this all runs on canned sequencers (possibly even motor-driven switches, like a old washing machine) based on elapsed flight time. This was all considered long ago, and this is the third manned abort they have had - none fatal, they did get nervous that they had come down in China on a previous late-boost abort, but turned out OK. They also had one flight that landed normally, but in a frozen lake, and had to get out their self-defense rifle to fight off wolves! And had a pretty miserable cold night of it.

    Brett
   

Offline Brett Buck

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Re: OT-Russian Launch Abort
« Reply #5 on: October 12, 2018, 09:20:26 PM »
Thanks for the explanations, Brett. It’s nice to hear some technical input from someone in the know. I’m sort of a space nut, especially the early stuff, so I find this stuff fascinating. I saw that there was an abort yesterday and that fortunately there was no loss of life.

I’ve watched some onboard videos of a normal Soyuz ISS undock and re-entry. It’s amazing what all has to go right during that process.

   And consider that it's about a million times simpler than what has to happen to get a Space Shuttle landed safely. The Russians have had a number of cases, including Gagarin, where the modules didn't separate properly, and it began re-entry nose-first instead of tail-first as intended, and only the fact that the heating of re-entry burned through the straps that were stuck that they didn't get killed. Once you get retro-fire, everything except the parachutes can fail, and it will stabilize itself heat-shield-first with no action (same with Mercury and Gemini) which greatly simplifies the system. Scott Carpenter ran out fuel right after retrofire, so he had no control once re-entry started, but he came down safely, albeit with a 250=mile overshoot.

     Brett


Offline Steve Fitton

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Re: OT-Russian Launch Abort
« Reply #6 on: October 13, 2018, 09:10:22 AM »
Thanks for some educated commentary about the abort.  I'd been (literally as well as figuratively) in the dark about the video since the hurricane knocked out power the day of the abort. 

I think one of the pre-sputnik launches had an issue with a strap on not coming off correctly and resulted in a failed launch.  it will be interesting to see if it is related to this failure.
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Offline john e. holliday

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Re: OT-Russian Launch Abort
« Reply #7 on: October 13, 2018, 10:21:04 AM »
I know space launches aren't covered like they used to be.   I am still amazed that we and the Russians haven't lost more people trying to conquer space travel and livability.  Thanks for the insight Brett.    H^^
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Offline Steve_Pollock

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Russian space equipment
« Reply #8 on: October 13, 2018, 11:01:54 AM »
Having participated in the Apollo-Soyuz Test Project back in the '70s, I can assure you that the Russian manned spacecraft equipment is excellent.  I was a member of the ASTP Controls Analysis Working Group, and had a chance to go out to Star City from Moscow (in a KGB limousine!) to take pictures of the docking target mounted on the front (+X) end of the Soyuz, which later met the Apollo vehicle with the docking module on orbit.  Their equipment may not as sophisticated as ours, but it works.

Offline FLOYD CARTER

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Re: OT-Russian Launch Abort
« Reply #9 on: October 13, 2018, 01:34:41 PM »
Sounds like differing opinions about Russian engineering.  With the free and easy exchange of tech information, it is surprising that the US/Russia would not both be at the front edge of tech, unless the bean-counters have gotten in the way.
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Offline Warren Wagner

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Re: OT-Russian Launch Abort
« Reply #10 on: October 13, 2018, 02:11:49 PM »
Brett,

Thanks for taking the time to share your expertise with us, and explain
what went on with this launch failure..   The reports from the general
Media raises more questions than it answers.

Cheers.

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Offline Dan McEntee

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Re: OT-Russian Launch Abort
« Reply #11 on: October 13, 2018, 07:08:52 PM »
    I like to think of Brett as our own, private Jules Bergman! I never missed a launch, splashdown, or any live report back in the 60's and always tried to watch ABC so I could get the straight scoop from old Jules. He just gave me the impression that he knew what he was talking about and made it interesting and easy to understand, for a young kid. If the launches and recoveries were still covered like that and easy to find I would still watch them. I wish I had been fortunate enough to see a Saturn "moon shot" as they used to call them, or a Shuttle launch.
   The thing I found interesting in the video was the way they were seated in the cabin of the module. Almost like they were just sitting on a couch or something. Didn't even look like they were strapped in?
   Type at you later,
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Offline Brett Buck

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Re: OT-Russian Launch Abort
« Reply #12 on: October 13, 2018, 08:20:08 PM »
Sounds like differing opinions about Russian engineering.  With the free and easy exchange of tech information, it is surprising that the US/Russia would not both be at the front edge of tech, unless the bean-counters have gotten in the way.

   They aren't trying to be at the leading edge, they are perfectly OK using something they have confidence in, and tweaking it. One of the perceived issues about the US space program has been that it has been too interested in cutting-edge technology - note that the Orion is a capsule again, instead of the massive and complex Shuttle.

     Brett

Offline Dave Hull

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Re: OT-Russian Launch Abort
« Reply #13 on: October 13, 2018, 10:11:15 PM »
If you are able (and willing) to scale the mission goals, then you can design using higher MRL elements. This always provides less program risk, decent performance, and more manageable cost. If you simply demand faster, better, cheaper (NASA D. Goldin), then you either fail early (almost never happens, given the motivation of our engineering pool to never say die), fail later (when cost overruns can no longer be managed), or somewhere along the way make rash decisions to freeze everything and proceed, despite what the engineering is telling you. (You can make a pretty good list here, in whatever endeavor you prefer to look at. It is a fundamental rule, and not limited to aerospace or defense design/contracts, no matter what the critics want to cherrypick.)  The only other branch to this set of outcomes is the one that people most often want to believe in--because it is something for everyone, except the person tasked with executing it. That is: innovate on a schedule and budget. You plan on having a breakthrough during the design process. I don't mean just doing good design work. I mean a significant improvement to the state of the art. Patentable stuff. I think Lockheed probably had this as one of their (later) planks supporting the Skunk Works philosophy. No doubt--it is great when it happens. It is even fun to point at it as a concrete reason to laud your team and pick them for the next development. The problem is that despite what they would have you believe, you cannot predict breakthru's. Why would you risk a project by setting up cost, schedule and performance goals that demand it?

To Brett's comments:
1. The new US manned concepts appear to scale back from the one vehicle system that can do practically everything due to its size, complexity, and flexibility (except attain high orbits) which makes the design risk much more manageable; and
2. The Russian approach which seems to be to build on their heavy lift basics, while adding technology after the TRL and MRL are very high. Think of caterpillar tractors--they routinely work after sitting in a field after years of neglect. That is robust. And when someone else pioneers GPS coupled guidance and drives down the component costs, then you bolt it onto your tractor. Simple!

My 1-1/2 cents,

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Offline Brett Buck

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Re: OT-Russian Launch Abort
« Reply #14 on: October 16, 2018, 07:51:27 PM »
An update - I misinterpreted the issue, this abort used the escape tower and it had not been jettisoned. That makes the fact that something flew away from the booster *BEFORE* the escape tower the likely cause, possibly part of the booster tank or even part of the launch fairing. That is NOT normal, we'll see if we ever find out what it was.

     Brett

Offline frank williams

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Re: OT-Russian Launch Abort
« Reply #15 on: October 18, 2018, 01:58:44 PM »
Apparently one of the four boosters didn't jettison cleanly and impacted the center stage.  They did come off on the escape tower.  I hope the guys and gals up there now brought some extra underwear cause its gonna be a spell before they get relieved.

Offline Mike Greb

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Re: OT-Russian Launch Abort
« Reply #16 on: October 19, 2018, 11:18:36 PM »
What has been reported is that the tower is jettisoned shortly before the 1st stage separates, but the shroud stays on.  The shroud has its own rocket motors, and that is what they actually used to get away from the booster.  If you look closely at pictures of the shroud you can see  that there are several rocket engines around the circumference of the shroud.

Offline Steve Fitton

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Re: OT-Russian Launch Abort
« Reply #17 on: October 22, 2018, 04:59:11 PM »
The Russians must employ modelers...  Latest is that one of the strap on boosters didn't fit during assembly, so, somebody forced it(!)  It now fit, but the fitting it attached to was bent and it would not release cleanly.  Lubrication was applied which was thought to have solved the problem...
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Offline Mike Callas

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Re: OT-Russian Launch Abort
« Reply #18 on: October 22, 2018, 05:33:25 PM »
Comrade, hand me the 6 dB hammer!
Reminds me of the Russian rocket carrying 3 Nav sats. Spun out of control after launch. I believe a tech forced on half the angular rate sensors backwards. So the rocket, like the young lad from Kent, instead of....................maybe later.
Luckily, the manned section got away. Still, a good record inspite of inauspicious beginnings.

Offline Steve Fitton

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Re: OT-Russian Launch Abort
« Reply #19 on: November 01, 2018, 05:26:47 AM »
Brett wasn't kidding about the wild gyrations of the core stage of the Soyuz after the failure!  Get a load of the onboard video!




Steve

Offline Brett Buck

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Re: OT-Russian Launch Abort
« Reply #20 on: November 01, 2018, 08:04:48 AM »
Brett wasn't kidding about the wild gyrations of the core stage of the Soyuz after the failure!  Get a load of the onboard video!

   The title still from the video is the money shot- the left booster is hung up and the others are separated. Guaranteed to do something bad, like what happened.

      Brett

Offline john e. holliday

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Re: OT-Russian Launch Abort
« Reply #21 on: November 01, 2018, 09:56:31 AM »
Lucky they made it back in one piece. D>K
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