2016 Nats SeedingHere is circle seeding for the 2016 stunt Nats. I did it using the same seeding formula that was used for the previous Stunt Nats. The seeding formula is based on Open, Expert, and Advanced Nats placing for the last 10 years. US team members not attending the Nats during a world champs year are included, ranked the same as Open Nats winners. I did the calculation this year. I put the seeding into the Nats stunt tabulation program. I'll forward copies of the seeding spreadsheet to anybody who wants it. Likewise, I'll send the tabulation program to anybody who wants it. I encourage everybody to look at these spreadsheets and critique them. I especially would like somebody other than myself to run through some trial Nats with the program to look for goofy things. Here are the top 30 seeds:
1 David Fitzgerald
2 Paul Walker
3 Orestes Hernandez
4 Doug Moon
5 Derek Barry
6 Kenny Stevens
7 Howard Rush
8 Kaz Minato
9 Brett Buck
10 Bob Hunt
11 Matt Neumann
12 Richard Oliver
13 Bud Wieder
14 Eric Taylor
15 Bill Rich
16 William DeMauro
17 Frank McMillan
18 Steve Moon
19 Robert McDonald
20 Dennis Vander Kuur
21 Michael Schmitt
22 Bill Werwage
23 Joe Gilbert
24 Chris Rud
25 Scott Reynolds
26 Mark McKinney
27 Ryan Young
28 Gene Martine
29 Steve Fitton
30 Roger Wildman
For the top 20 in Open and Advanced for the last ten years, first place gets 20 points, second place gets 19, and so on. US Team members who were out of town for the WC get 20 points each. Scores get multiplied by 10 for 2014, 9 for 2013, and so on. Advanced scores are then multiplied by .5. Bud Wieder's score includes both his Open and Advanced placings, for example. I combined the Expert and Advanced placings for 2013 and 2014.
Top score is seeded #1. Guys who haven't placed in the top 20 in either Advanced or Open in the last ten years are unseeded. Their assignment to one of the four groups for qualifying rounds is done by random draw.
The tabulation program tosses out seeds that are not entered at the current Nats and moves those who are entered up to fill in gaps. For example, if Dave Fitzgerald doesn't show up for this year’s Nats, the tabulation program will bump everybody else up a notch.
This seeding is only used to distribute contestants among four circles for qualifying. It might make the circles more uniform, but it has little effect on the outcome of the contest. Here is a crude analysis I did on the effect of Nats qualification rounds seeding:
http://stunthanger.com/smf/open-forum/nats-seeding/Although seeding has little effect--none at all on the top handful of fliers-- using a formula published in advance removes any arbitrariness about circle assignment.
2016 Nats Process ChangeDennis Adamisin, Nats Stunt Event Director, asked me to replace public, random drawing (the pingpong balls) of flight orders with flight order assignment by random number generator built into the program. I did that. I also added a random number generator to assign unseeded contestants to qualification circles. The program now gives the option of using the public drawing or internal random number generator for these functions. Although it’s short notice, I encourage folks to check my implementation of the random number generator: there are ways of doing it wrong.
Topic: 2016 Stunt Nats Seeding and Process (Read 1494 times)