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General control line discussion => Open Forum => Topic started by: Howard Rush on February 18, 2017, 01:45:52 AM
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We have been determining flight order for each round of stunt at the Nats by random draw. This might not be the fairest way to do it. Stunt lore has it that flying late in a round is advantageous. A purely random draw can give one guy a bunch of early flights over the three or four rounds of a phase of the contest, and give another guy a bunch of late flights. I talked to Dennis Adamisin about this yesterday. Long ago his mother came up with a mapping scheme that would determine subsequent-round flight orders from a randomly drawn first round. I proposed putting that or something like that into the Nats tabulation program. He suggested that it might be worth doing for the Open finals, but he was reluctant to have me further complicate the rest of the contest. I set out to concoct a mapping.
First I think we should come up with a figure of merit: something measureable to shoot for. I propose adding the flight orders for each guy and trying to make that sum come out the same for everybody. Here’s an example randomly drawn Nats Open finals (five guys, three flights each):
guy flight 1 flight 2 flight 3
John 1 2 5
Paul 2 4 4
George 3 5 1
Ringo 4 1 2
Howard 5 3 3
Sums of flight orders in this case are 8 for John, 10 for Paul, 9 for Ringo, and so on. The attached PDF shows the probabilities for each possible sum for randomly drawn flights. It goes from 3 (all 1’s) to 15 (all 5’s).
A more uniform way to assign flight orders is to randomly draw the first round, then move everybody down two notches for each of the other flights. Here’s what that looks like. Behold in all these cases I’m sorting by the first-flight order.
guy flight 1 flight 2 flight 3
Howard 1 4 2
Paul 2 5 3
Ringo 3 1 4
George 4 2 5
John 5 3 1
This yield sums of 7, 10, 8, 11, and 9: a little more uniform and the same every time. It has the property of having each guy follow the same person in most cases for each round, which is probably not good.
Better, I think, would be something like this:
guy flight 1 flight 2 flight 3
Paul 1 4 4
George 2 5 2
Ringo 3 1 5
Howard 4 2 3
John 5 3 1
The numbers in the table would stay fixed. The sum of flight orders in each case is 9. We would randomly assign guys to the five rows. What do you think?
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Better, I think, would be something like this:
guy flight 1 flight 2 flight 3
Paul 1 4 4
George 2 5 2
Ringo 3 1 5
Howard 4 2 3
John 5 3 1
The numbers in the table would stay fixed. The sum of flight orders in each case is 9. We would randomly assign guys to the five rows. What do you think?
Even better, maybe
Paul 2 1 1
but I think we already tried that!
I liked the random number generator a lot better than the ping pong balls, because the ping pong balls were against me. That, and all the mistakes I was making.
Brett
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They always said there was a fifth beatle , and paul Mc Cartney died . :) :P
Why not just put all five up at once ,
And put streamers on them while your at it . ;D
Last man still up wins . . . n1 n1 S?P S?P
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Howard that scheme sounds fair.As a former teacher of 37 years I can honestly say that when marking papers or reports done by students in the beginning of the task I was tougher on grading then when I was tired after marking 20 or 30 reports and was not nearly as "tough" as on the first ones. Hey, I'm human.....PhillySkip
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While you're at it, assign judges to circles in the same manner
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While you're at it, assign judges to circles in the same manner
How would that work?
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How would that work?
He wants random judge selection. And presumably, random winners.
Brett
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Peabody, why don't you volunteer to run stunt at the NATS. I don't think Dennis has anybody lined up yet. VD~ S?P
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I think the overall NATs format is pretty robust, and it got that way with a few big bold changes and with some subsequent "tinkering". By finals day we are running a very short contest - we would all hope that the flight order does not significantly effect the outcome. However it is still possible to get a skew in flight order; whether it be random number generator, ping pong balls, or Rock-Paper-Scissors. By Final Five day we know exactly how many people are involved and we can take action to try to balance the flight order over 3 rounds as Howard shows.
I like the third example Howard laid out in his opening post, and the logic of the balanced ordinals. I also congratulate Howard for displacing Pete Best as Beatle #5
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He wants random judge selection.
Yes, I know. I don't think this current issue applies to judges. Once they get picked for a phase of the contest (whether by random draw or some statistical formula), they stay put.
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Yes, I know. I don't think this current issue applies to judges. Once they get picked for a phase of the contest (whether by random draw or some statistical formula), they stay put.
He would like it until random selection failed to get the desired result, then he or someone else would be back on the warpath.
Brett
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I didn't realize that Howard was secret member of the Beatles.
Derek
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I've Heard that Howard plays grand piano with the group. 😆😆😆
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My belief is that judges should be assigned the circles that they are judging throughout the entire event on day one.....no "grading" judges and having the sub standard judge Advanced or kiddie stunt.
If they don't make the grade, don't ask them back.
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Here are 3 Rounds generated by random using atmospheric noise. The process of "random" is very interesting and does throw up certain issues.
I like Howard's idea of having fixed spots and randomising the names to suit. Running this simulation a few times I realised there are 2 ways to think about it.
Getting hit with 1st up 1st up is still random..
This seems fundamentally flawed.
Paul 2
Howard 3
John 1
Ringo 4
George 5
Howard 3
George 5
Paul 2
Ringo 4
John 1
Ringo 4
George 5
John 1
Howard 3
Paul 2
Consider that in reality we dont NEED it to be "random"
there are mathematically only 120 permutations of 5 fliers needing to be re arranged and remember the same flier cannot be used twice. We only need to select 3 of them. Out of these 120 we could remove 85% of the combinations to leave 18 to select 3 that gave the best spread combination. This is where having a pre determined set of flight order number system would be best and simply randomly assign names to the first round once your "locked in" in that first flight order the subsequent order is predetermined and set.
You can continue to use the same format over and over.
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If they don't make the grade, don't ask them back.
That's the best idea I ever heard, it also solves the problem of what to do with the many hundreds of qualified volunteers we have to turn away every year!
Brett
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Im surprised there were only 40 group 3 round combinations available. We could look at which one of these 40 works to out each flier the furthest away from the next flier they were to follow bearing in mind there will always be a final flight.
It doesnt need to be random at all. We could look at it objectivly. Even if you dismiss 1/2 of these it only leave 20 to look at. Its not hard .
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I went through them seeing if there was a way to sort them and it seems there is if you employ a few rules.
Rules of fairness..
In that only 3 fliers will ever experience "1st round "
If we delete fliers repeating being up first in a round... or if ypur up last your not up first in the next round.
Its still not easy to get a balanced system with only 3 rounds.. however I do think these 2 are viable.
FYI Im not being a smartass Its a number system that does need to follow some rules. I have run some number combinations and its not as "easy" as it sounds.. even using my system of number selections you can see perceived "patterns" Flier 2 has the same spot.. or flier 3 in the second column has the same.. however its just an aborition of the numbers. These are fair and work out well in seperation.
I urge others to look if you think these are bogus figures!
Pilot 5Pilot 4Pilot 1Pilot 3Pilot 2
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Pilot 2Pilot 5Pilot 1Pilot 3Pilot 4