Nats Stunt Contestant Seeding

[Howard Rush]

Dave Fitzgerald will use the same seeding formula that was used for the previous Stunt Nats.  The seeding formula is based on Nats placing for the last 10 years. US team members not attending the Nats during a world champs year are included, ranked the same as Nats winners. I did the calculation this year.  I'll put the seeding into my Nats stunt tabulation program.  I'll forward copies of the seeding spreadsheet to anybody who wants it. Likewise, I'll send the tabulation program to anybody who wants it.  I encourage everybody to look at these spreadsheets and critique them.  Here are the top 30 seeds:

1 David Fitzgerald
2 Derek Barry
3 Orestes Hernandez
4 Brett Buck
5 Matt Neumann
6 Paul Walker
7 Richard Oliver
8 Howard Rush
9 Bill Rich
10 Kenny Stevens
11 Frank McMillan
12 Randy Smith
13 Ryan Young
14 Windy Urtnowski
15 Dan Banjock
16 Bill Werwage
17 Doug Moon
18 Bud Wieder
19 Eric Taylor
20 Terry Fancher
21 Bob Hunt
22 Mike Schmitt
23 Kaz Minato
24 Josias Delgado
25 Kent Tysor
26 Dennis Vander Kuur
27 Mike Greb
28 Paul Ferrell
29 Bob McDonald
30 Masaru Hiki

For the top 20 in Open and Advanced for the last ten years, first place gets 20 points, second place gets 19, and so on. US Team members who were out of town for the WC get 20 points each. Scores get multiplied by 10 for 2010, 9 for 2009, and so on. Advanced scores are then multiplied by .5. Orestes's score includes his team points plus his Open and Advanced placings, for example. Top score is seeded #1. Guys who haven't placed in the top 20 in either Advanced or Open are unseeded. Their assignment to one of the four groups for qualifying rounds is done by random draw.

The tabulation program tosses out seeds that are not entered at the current Nats and moves those who are entered up to fill in gaps.  For example, Dave Fitzgerald is running this year’s Nats, so the tabulation program will bump everybody else up a notch.  If Derek flies, he will be seeded number 1.  Similarly, Windy was seeded number 1 at the 2010 Nats.  

This seeding is only used to distribute contestants among four circles for qualifying.  It might make the circles more uniform, but it has little effect on the outcome of the contest.

Comments on the method should go to Dave Fitzgerald, corrections to me.

[RC Storick]

When did  Dennis Vander Kuur make top 20 in open. I thought he flew Advanced. Or did he win advanced last year?

Last years Advanced scores
top 4

Official Scores -- 325 Advanced Skill Class




Place

Category

Full Name

Location

Score



 1

S

RYAN W YOUNG

HOUSTON, TX

993.00



 2

O

ERIC H TAYLOR

HENRYVILLE, IN

970.67



 3

S

MATTHEW S COLAN

SWANTON, VT

966.67



 4

O

DENNIS L VANDERKUUR

NORTHBROOK, IL

920.33

[Howard Rush]

He placed in the top 20 in Advanced the last five years. 

[RC Storick]

cool.

[Howard Rush]

I left off "and Advanced" in the explanation, so it didn't make much sense.  Thanks for catching it, Robert.

[Derek Barry]

  If Derek flies, he will be seeded number 1.  

I think I will fly.

Thanks Howard, for doing this again.

Derek

[Brett Buck]

I think I will fly.

Thanks Howard, for doing this again.

   Oh, I see, NOW, it's a great idea!

     Brett

[Derek Barry]

   Oh, I see, NOW, it's a great idea!

     Brett

Well, I was kinda hoping that Dave would just send the trophy to my house and we could omit the silly contest part.  He said no...

Derek

[Brett Buck]

Well, I was kinda hoping that Dave would just send the trophy to my house and we could omit the silly contest part.  He said no...

   I tell ya, some people. Think of the savings!  That Dave, never thinks anything through.

    Brett

[Randy Powell]

 

[Paul Walker]

Well, I was kinda hoping that Dave would just send the trophy to my house and we could omit the silly contest part.  He said no...

Derek

That's because he knows where it is going. 

[Derek Barry]

That's because he knows where it is going. 

 That sounds like a challenge... I accept.

[PJ Rowland]

I actually thought Dave had already organized that delivery for you Paul....

[Clint Ormosen]

That's because he knows where it is going. 

That sounds like a challenge... I accept.

Trash talkin' on the forums! I like it!

[Brett Buck]

Trash talkin' on the forums! I like it!

Oh certainly. That sort of thing *never* comes back to haunt you. I even let Derek off the hook with the sandpaper.


    Brett

[Dennis Moritz]

The fix is in! Science. Science. Science. I will consult the good book. Thank you. Eve did it. (Didn't get very far in my reading.)

[Howard Rush]

That's because he knows where it is going. 

Close.  Right state.

[Derek Barry]

Oh certainly. That sort of thing *never* comes back to haunt you. I even let Derek off the hook with the sandpaper.


    Brett

 I will give them the entire story Brett.

As some of you know, I made the team bound for Hungary by defeating Brett by a whopping .04!!! Well, as the rest of the team and I stood there for the pictures Werwage leaned over and said "you should put .04 on the rudder of your worlds plane" I thought that might be a little much, so i put it on the fuse under the stab and only 1/4" tall. Then I took a picture and posted it on this forum for the world to see. . Of course Brett threatened to use 100 grit sand paper to remove it from my plane the next time we met.
 Brett is a true gentleman, he did not remove the .04 from my plane and after about 3 days of me pestering him he even agreed to sign it. This I took as a sign of weakness and took back my request for the signature.

Derek

p.s. Brett, I brought my knife

[W.D. Roland]

Hum

Need to look at this more closely as it is new to me.

First glance indicates it may not be worth 3/4 of the PA fliers in the country to attend the Nats.

What I read into it so far is I wouldn't bother going.

Wait until the poisoning is over and my head clears before trying to digest more.

[Steve Fitton]

Hum

Need to look at this more closely as it is new to me.

First glance indicates it may not be worth 3/4 of the PA fliers in the country to attend the Nats.

What I read into it so far is I wouldn't bother going.

Wait until the poisoning is over and my head clears before trying to digest more.

Why would it not be worth going to?  I've only gone three times but its become my favorite contest.  A great facility, great people and great flying.

[Dennis Moritz]

Low seeding is not necessarily a disadvantage. Is it? The thought is to even out the distribution of pilot abilities as each group compares to the others. Similar number of top finishers, similar number of mid level finishers, and so on. Actually low seeding, for some folks who have won and finished high in previous NATS, might be advantageous. Since it's likely that they will fly better than their ranking. I could be mistaken. But I think this computer model for grouping is used to make the group distribution as objective and non-biased as possible. Previous to the computer model of ranking, flying groups were made up differently. Causing some to suspect bias. While others were outraged by that suspicion.

[Brett Buck]

Hum

Need to look at this more closely as it is new to me.

First glance indicates it may not be worth 3/4 of the PA fliers in the country to attend the Nats.

What I read into it so far is I wouldn't bother going.

    Based on the seeding?  Why would that make any difference?  All that this is used for is who flies in which of the 4 groups for qualifying. Unseeded people are distributed at random on the same circles.

   Brett

[Dennis Moritz]

I agree with Steve that the NATs is a great contest. Even tho I fly in Intermediate and will likely continue to do so.  Fun to see the best fliers duke it out. Lots of friends I see only once a year. Brodak has an entirely different quality. A homecoming, a family reunion, for me. I'm sure many others feel the same way.

[Bill Little]

That sounds like a challenge... I accept.

I got yer back, Little Buddy!

BIG Bear
RNMM/AMM

[Brett Buck]

Previous to the computer model of ranking, flying groups were made up differently. Causing some to suspect bias. While others were outraged by that suspicion.

  Correct, because it was a lie and intended to impugn the integrity of the people doing it and eventually, to undermine the operation of the NATs and PAMPA.

    I think we should be rather outraged at honest hard-working people being accused of every form of dirty dealing, fraud, and even threatened with death, because a few prima-donnas with delusions of granduer didn't finish quite as well as they thought they should.

   Are you?

    Brett

[Dennis Moritz]

I had no horse in that race. When there was disagreement. In fact when I attended the NATs years back and there was a flap over this, I didn't get it, didn't understand the why or the implications. I certainly can understand why hard working honest folks would feel wronged. For the most part, far as I can tell as an observer, we've gone past that moment. Good.

[W.D. Roland]

Thanks Dennis
I see the logic a little better now.

Are Judges rotated from group to group each round?  Say 3 groupings of fliers and 3 groups of judges rotated individual judges to a different groups of fliers each round? this would I guess be 3 rounds?

[Steve Fitton]

I agree with Steve that the NATs is a great contest. Even tho I fly in Intermediate and will likely continue to do so.  Fun to see the best fliers duke it out. Lots of friends I see only once a year. Brodak has an entirely different quality. A homecoming, a family reunion, for me. I'm sure many others feel the same way.

One advantage of the Nats over Brodaks is that Banjock's after hours endeavors are not limited by a small field!

[Larry Fernandez]

Trash talkin' on the forums! I like it!

This is great !! Its barely March and the trash talkin has already begun. I cant wait till July. LET THE BS BEGIN !!!!!!!!!!!!

Larry, Buttafucco Stunt Team

[Bill Little]

I agree with Steve that the NATs is a great contest. Even tho I fly in Intermediate and will likely continue to do so.  Fun to see the best fliers duke it out. Lots of friends I see only once a year. Brodak has an entirely different quality. A homecoming, a family reunion, for me. I'm sure many others feel the same way.

HI Dennis,

I totally agree that there is a different "air" to the two gatherings.  If you are uber competitive, then the NATS will be fun, otherwise, Brodak's is a ton of just plain old FUN.  Different strokes for different folks.

BIG Bear
RNMM/AMM

[Paul Walker]

Close.  Right state.

A knife is required to be in this fight!    (And snorts don't count)

[Mike Palko]

Thanks Dennis
I see the logic a little better now.

Are Judges rotated from group to group each round?  Say 3 groupings of fliers and 3 groups of judges rotated individual judges to a different groups of fliers each round? this would I guess be 3 rounds?

On the first day of qualifying you fly two official flights. Your high score of the day counts. The scenario is the same for the second day of qualifying although the flights are on a different circle in front of different judges. The two high scores are then added which determines the top 20. On top 20 day you fly on two different circles in front of two different groups of judges. Both flights count and are added to determine the winner in Advanced and the top 5 in Open. The top 5 fly off is the best two out of three flights, all of which are in front of the same judges.

If there are enough judges the high and low scores are thrown out to help prevent the judges from influencing the outcome of the contest. I don’t know if that has been the case in recent years. Many efforts have been made to improve the quality of the judging although it will always be subjective. Entrants are free to protest during the contest and the ED will also answer any questions you might have.

Mike

[Mike Palko]

One advantage of the Nats over Brodaks is that Banjock's after hours endeavors are not limited by a small field!

Dan has now lost two free flight ships at Brodaks. They were probably two of the most unexpected fly aways to boot. He lost a rubber powered ornithopter (thermaled OOS) and his death rotor flew OOS under it's own power.

From now on I think most of his free flight flying will be done at the AMA site.

Mike

[Randy Powell]

Uh, yea, you guys have fun.

[Howard Rush]

Are Judges rotated from group to group each round? 

Did somebody tell you to ask that?  They are unless an idiot enters the circle assignments into the computer wrong at the pilots' meeting.  That's what I did last year, and it got everything messed up.  Had we realized that's what happened, we could have recovered easily, but we never imagined that anybody could be that dumb. 

[RC Storick]

Did somebody tell you to ask that?  They are unless an idiot enters the circle assignments into the computer wrong at the pilots' meeting.  That's what I did last year, and it got everything messed up.  Had we realized that's what happened, we could have recovered easily, but we never imagined that anybody could be that dumb. 

Question?Are you sure Dennis is going to fly open?

[PJ Rowland]

Its simple..

The US nats is easily leaps and bounds the best single stunt event on the planet.

• Best run
• Fairest
• Best facilities
• Great location
• Top judging
• World Class fliers competiting
• Former World Champions side by side
• Top practice facilities.

If none of the above quantifies as requirements for the ULTIMATE stunt contest - then your living in a world made up of fantasy and make believe.

If your not interested in being a part of that show - then dont attend. Some people................... fly tens of thousands of miles international airtravel to attend your countries National event - its that good.

See everyone in 2013...

[W.D. Roland]

Did somebody tell you to ask that?  They are unless an idiot enters the circle assignments into the computer wrong at the pilots' meeting.  That's what I did last year, and it got everything messed up.  Had we realized that's what happened, we could have recovered easily, but we never imagined that anybody could be that dumb. 

No. (hint: read reply #18)
Who and or why would anyone. This is all new to me and speculation with questions that receive helpful answers
leads to understanding.

In return I will ask, Did some one ask you to ask me this?

But it may help my understanding more if you tell me what this was about:
[[Had we realized that's what happened]] What Happened?

So far Dennis and Mike Palko have been  helpful to me on this. Thanks guys 

[Ted Fancher]

Its simple..

The US nats is easily leaps and bounds the best single stunt event on the planet.

• Best run
• Fairest
• Best facilities
• Great location
• Top judging
• World Class fliers competiting
• Former World Champions side by side
• Top practice facilities.

If none of the above quantifies as requirements for the ULTIMATE stunt contest - then your living in a world made up of fantasy and make believe.

If your not interested in being a part of that show - then dont attend. Some people................... fly tens of thousands of miles international airtravel to attend your countries National event - its that good.

See everyone in 2013...

P.J.

Thanks very much for that positive assessment.

A lot of people have put a lot of personal effort and fortune into making that happen.  It was the US Nationals that provided the catalyst for making PAMPA a reality and which invigorated the likes of Keith Trostle, Wynn Paul, Tom Morris, and a handful of others including my wife to make CL Stunt and the US Nationals an event unlike any other in the control line world.  It may not have been perfect the first time but every time it gets closer to it.  That reality is the result of the efforts of those people.  It may not be unique in the human experience but it is damned rare!

It's a pleasure to see their efforts applauded as positively and accurately as you've just done.

Ted Fancher

[Randy Powell]

And hey, The Ted is on the list.

[W.D. Roland]

This might help in why I need help in understanding all this 'NEW TO ME' methods.

My last Serious interest in C/L before now ended at the 1975 Nats(AMA Fast Combat).
 What A blast! Party!
Did pretty good for having slightly more than a 6pack of Slitz Malt Liqueur for breakfast.
Ok..a few cheese crackers also
Early member of MACA.

After that, one local contest in 79 with borrowed equipment(heavy) with no practice and sober
eliminated Buck and Stubblefield. Twas a good day indeed.

Girls ,race carz, R/C and family until about 2005 when I discovered C/L Stunt was alive
and well. Always wanted to try Stunt.

So in last 2 years have made it to 4 PA contest with 2 first in beginner and 2 first in
intermediate. So far so good.

So what in the heck is PAMPA? What is its purpose? Similar to MACA?

What is seeding and how does it work? Pro/Con.

What went so wrong as mentioned by Howard?

If I'm gona do this understanding above is required.
Real answers not B.S. are helpful.

The only C/L PA fliers in my area are 3 hours away, at 80-90mph.
Also that's the closest of any sort of C/L Fliers.
Other than here I'm own my own.

[PJ Rowland]

 Ted :

[Howard Rush]

So what in the heck is PAMPA? What is its purpose? Similar to MACA?

Yes, except the memberships have different personalities.

What is seeding and how does it work? Pro/Con.

Mike explained the Nats format (except scores are not thrown out).  During the qualifying flights, the contestants are split into four groups.  The judges are also split into four groups: one group for each of the four circles. Each judge remains on the same circle for both days of qualification.  Each contestant flies two flights on the same circle the first day.  Then contestants from circle 1 fly on circle 3 the second day,  contestants from circle 2 fly on circle 4 the second day, contestants from circle 3 fly on circle 1 the second day, and contestants from circle 4 fly on circle 2 the second day.  Thus after two days, each contestant has flown before two sets of judges.  The best-scoring five contestants from each of the four groups advance to the semifinals (top 20).  This works well; I think I can justify it at least qualitatively.  

Most folks think it would be nice if all the best fliers didn't end up in the same group, and that something should be done to distribute them uniformly among the four groups.  Hence the notion of seeding.  I think that when Warren Tiahrt was running the Nats, he would watch guys practicing and pick the ones he thought were flying the best and spread them out among the four circles.  I'm sure however he did the seeding was fair, but there may have been grumbling.  To do the seeding objectively, he'd probably have needed a formula and maybe a computer program to process the data.  To avoid any grumbling, when Paul Walker took over running the Nats, Paul (not any of the grumblers) went to some effort to make a formula and write an Excel spreadsheet to do the processing.  

I did a 10,000-case simple Monte Carlo simulation to see if seeding is better than random circle assignment.  The a priori probability (the probability before circles are assigned) of the 20th-best guy making the top 20 and the 21st-best guy not making the top 20 are very nearly the same with or without seeding.  The top five guys would make the top 20 either way.  Seeding did help the fortunes of people who were  about eighth best.

What went so wrong as mentioned by Howard?

I'm sorry that you missed the joke.  It was sorta an inside joke.  I wrote the Nats tabulation program that's been used the last four years, so I have been doing the data entry during the pilots' meeting.  I guess people had unjustified confidence in me, because right there in public, I assigned the judges to follow the fliers from day 1 to day 2: judges on circle 1 would go to circle 3 on the second day, rather than staying put, judges from circle 2 would follow the same group of fliers to circle 4, and so on.  Then we printed the scoresheets, never noticing the screwup.  I got a call from Dave Fitzgerald, who was helping Bill Rich with the mechanics of tabulation, Wednesday morning saying that the program had screwed up.  Everybody assumed that it had, and concocted an elaborate emergency workaround.  It was downhill from there.  

[W.D. Roland]

Thank You Howard!

Now that I know what and how of the logic and method My comment is I like it.

Having the Judges remain stationary so they stay accustom to the back ground for even judging is brilliant.
This way the rotating fliers have to do the adjusting to back ground and this is the way it should be, if picking the best Flier is the goal.

Helping those around the 8th level will encourage participation and improvement in the individuals.

The stunt world is lucky to have you and the investment you put into this.

After dealing with the past ridiculous AMA slow bushing only rules,
SCCA goofyness is some areas
Some of the weird rules in in Cart racing
And worst of all the Hillbilly dirt track insanities I hope you can understand my concern when trying to understand
with lack of information.

On the last part, from some seem to be animosities from those who demand more than is reasonable from their
fellow humans probably would be unhappy with any method or results.

My Family has built and donated work and materials to create what before its demise was considered the finests flying site in the US with 4 paved circles, run a hobby shop at a loss to help support the hobby and sponsor and haul
4-6 of us youngsters around to contest.
Mom was volunteer official at 74 and 75 Nats at I think the stunt circles as well as her and Dad CDing contest
so the rest could fly.
Tender to the charter and business end of our local C/L club the 'Flying Pelicans' of which I now have all documents and am apparently the last member.
All of us officiated, worked corners, timing and scoring at SCCA as well as Mom being part of the SanJac crash rescue.
Establish local Alpine Sports Car Club and Corvette club.

Believe me, I understand and appreciate the dedication and hard work of those like yourself, Ted and Family and the others who "make it happen"

Those who don't should give it a try and come to understand how much can go wrong no matter the level of dedication and thought put in to pulling of successful event of any nature.

Soon as or before I get back on my feet joining PAMPA sound like a good idea.

Thanks for yours and the others help in me coming to an understand of this process.

Will print out your post for further understanding and memorizing.

David

[Howard Rush]

Question?Are you sure Dennis is going to fly open?

I'm reluctant to bump this up, but I failed to answer this question.  The same list is used to seed the Advanced guys.  Some of them will have seeding numbers, and we'll use those numbers to distribute those guys among the four circles.  Dennis will get seeded in whichever he flies, either Open or Advanced.  He and the two Mikes are the only ones in the top 30 seeds that I remember seeing fly Advanced lately.  If they enter Advanced this year, the seeding will put them on separate circles. 

[Howard Rush]

P.J.

Thanks very much for that positive assessment.

A lot of people have put a lot of personal effort and fortune into making that happen.  It was the US Nationals that provided the catalyst for making PAMPA a reality and which invigorated the likes of Keith Trostle, Wynn Paul, Tom Morris, and a handful of others including my wife to make CL Stunt and the US Nationals an event unlike any other in the control line world.  It may not have been perfect the first time but every time it gets closer to it.  That reality is the result of the efforts of those people.  It may not be unique in the human experience but it is damned rare!

It's a pleasure to see their efforts applauded as positively and accurately as you've just done.

Ted Fancher

Another comment I meant to make on this subject is that one person stands out as having done the most work by far of all those who contributed to the stunt Nats.  That's Shareen Fancher.

[Derek Barry]

Another comment I meant to make on this subject is that one person stands out as having done the most work by far of all those who contributed to the stunt Nats.  That's Shareen Fancher.

That's not going to get your score sheets out of the tabulation booth any faster Howard.

[dale gleason]

David,

Here's a little anecdote that might increase your understanding of the system when you get to the NATs at Muncie.....

I innocently ordered a cheeseburger with mustard and jalepenos at that little booth next to the pagoda on the "L" pad. Those two cooks in the booth were counting their day's reciepts or something, looked at me as though I just came in from Mars.

I think one can probably avoid what happened to me next by ordering one's hamburgers at the Boy Scout tent, across the driveway from the pagoda, which is what I learned to do.

dg

[john e. holliday]

Yeah Mom at the Boy Scout tent is one of the greatest.   Miss seeing her and the great food they put out.

[Derek Barry]

Yeah Mom at the Boy Scout tent is one of the greatest.   Miss seeing her and the great food they put out.

Yes it is nice to not have to leave the field to get breakfast and lunch. The prices are very good too, I think I fed the whole family lunch for 10-15 dollars every day. Try doing that at Wendy's.

Derek