Nats Flight Order

[Peter in Fairfax, VA]

Relayed from Gerry Glier.

[Derek Barry]

This might change tomorrow. I'm pretty sure the seeding wasn't applied to this grouping.

Derek

[John Rist]

Relayed from Gerry Glier.

That's strange.  In group C  Ronnie wound up 9th 3 out of 4 times.

[Howard Rush]

This might change tomorrow. I'm pretty sure the seeding wasn't applied to this grouping.

I checked the first ten Open seeds, and they are correct.  I understand your reluctance to be in the same group as Dan Banjock.  You could get the giggles, which could adversely affect your stunt.

[Howard Rush]

That's strange.  In group C  Ronnie wound up 9th 3 out of 4 times.

Looks like that happened a lot.  How about doing some calculation to determine the probability that a guy could get the same number 3 out of 4 times.  Remember the (n-r)! stuff? 

Many people think that the guy who put the random number generator in the tabulation program is either too stupid or too dishonest to do it fairly.  If I were in charge of stunt at the Nats, I'd have people draw numbered pingpong balls from a bag for flight orders.  Guys who think the virus is a hoax could lick their balls.

Betty Adamisin came up with what I think is a better way to assign flight orders: draw the first round randomly and map the other three rounds from the first round by a method that distributes the flight orders more uniformly.  We do that for the Nats Open finals.  The sum of a guy's flight orders for the three rounds is nine.

[Derek Barry]

I checked the first ten Open seeds, and they are correct.  I understand your reluctance to be in the same group as Dan Banjock.  You could get the giggles, which could adversely affect your stunt.

 I was unaware of the addition, and subtraction of some pilots. This would certainly affect the random seeding of un-seeded pilots. Therefore,  I retract my previous statement.  Continue on!

[Ken Culbertson]

Crist, Congratulations.  The odds of randomly drawing the first spot 4 times in a row is about 1 in 38,000.  You must feel honored.

Ken

[Howard Rush]

Crist, Congratulations.  The odds of randomly drawing the first spot 4 times in a row is about 1 in 38,000.  You must feel honored.

There are 6 in Advanced on Crist's circle.  The odds of him drawing the first spot four times in a row is 1 in 1,296, about half the chance of drawing a full house in poker.  The probability of at least one person in Advanced doing it is, if I ciphered correctly, .0168 or 1 in 59.5, a little worse than the chance of drawing three of a kind in poker.  I don't know how they did the draw, but the built-in random number generator would have been easiest.  The draw looks funny, but a problem with random draws is that they don't look random.

[Ken Culbertson]

There are 6 in Advanced on Crist's circle.  The odds of him drawing the first spot four times in a row is 1 in 1,296, about half the chance of drawing a full house in poker.  The probability of at least one person in Advanced doing it is, if I ciphered correctly, .0168 or 1 in 59.5, a little worse than the chance of drawing three of a kind in poker.  I don't know how they did the draw, but the built-in random number generator would have been easiest.  The draw looks funny, but a problem with random draws is that they don't look random.

I thought they did the flight order combined - my bad.

Ken

[Steve Fitton]

I checked the first ten Open seeds, and they are correct.  I understand your reluctance to be in the same group as Dan Banjock.  You could get the giggles, which could adversely affect your stunt.

At least Banjock entered the Turbo Craven and not the ear shattering jet stunter. 

[john e. holliday]

Just be glad there is stunt at the NATS.   I am old enough to remember when the Navy judged the NATS it was not by rounds.  If I remember right the contestant would draw his card and put it in the flight order.   At quiting time if you didn't get your card in early enough, too bad.   Hope you guys are thanking all those involved for what they are doing so there can be stunt at the NATS.