Control Line Shrinking? Nope.

[Dave_Trible]

Firstly,  it is confirmed our CL Nats will be in the normal time frame of the third week of July.

Looking at Nats entry data for overall controline entries, 

2013.    190
2015.     175
2019.      215
2020.      135.   First Covid year
2021.      208.  !!!!

The numbers are only smaller going backwards through the 2000s

Dave

[Joe Ed Pederson]

I've tried to add to the attendance number for the last three years, but our grandkids from Colorado have shown up the week before or during the week of the Nats each of the last three years.

The grandkids win every time.  Maybe in 2022.

Joe Ed Pederson

[phil c]

Nice work Dave!  The next question is:  How many of those flyers are new to the sport, say within the last 10-5 years?

I know that on the east coast, PA, NJ, and others there have been new people, not necessary young but not old like me, starting to turn out for speed limit combat and just building and flying vintage planes.

[James Lee]

Joe Ed
The best solution to your problem is to bring the grandkids to the Nats!!
Problem solved....    ;-)
Jim

[Steve Scott]

Not convinced Nats participation is indicative of the overall segment.  I can name one LHS which has a stack of Sig Banshee kits but, sadly, no CL engines, control lines, handles or fuel.  Another LHS used to have at least an endcap which had a few lines (never any .015 x 60') and perhaps a ½A handle but nothing for anything larger.  Now they are completely devoid of anything CL related.  They also don't have any RC kits.  Everything now is foam RTF stuff and all electric.

We're a niche mail-order SIG and that isn't great for getting new, younger people into the sport.

[Dave_Trible]

Steve,  sure won't argue about the fate of many hobby shops.  This isn't new.  The local hobby shop began waning  as the mail order hobby houses began taking away their business years ago.  You can buy more expensive items cheaper from businesses that have very little brick and mortar overhead and few employees, wages and taxes to pay.  That also makes it hard to judge where the CL people are.  They don't radiate in an area surrounding the old hobby shop.  I'm told however there are something like 5000 who visit the CL websites on facebook and other sites who we seldom see or hear about.  Granted many of these have only a casual interest and aren't what we call 'modelers', but it does show more curiosity in our hobby than we understood.
We know in many locals,  clubs and people have died out.  Long running contests are going away each year.  However I think we can assume the sport must be growing in other pockets around the country or Nats entry would be falling way off instead of gradually increasing in recent years.  We do see a net positive in entry numbers and new faces showing up here and there.   We are quite a ways from dead yet!  Our hobby is just changing in some ways and it seems wise to me to embrace what we have and accept that we have to adapt a little to allow/accept the change.  For sure we can't go back....Dave

[Tim Wescott]

We're a niche mail-order SIG and that isn't great for getting new, younger people into the sport.

I don't think what's in the LHS (AKA "toy store") is much of an indication.

If we want to get new, younger people into the sport we need to have a presence on YouTube, facebook, etc., showing how fun it is.

Unfortunately, that cuts into one's flying time...

[Dave_Trible]

Tim that PROFOUNDLY describes the overall problem we have in just about every area.

[Steve Helmick]

I don't think what's in the LHS (AKA "toy store") is much of an indication.

If we want to get new, younger people into the sport we need to have a presence on YouTube, facebook, etc., showing how fun it is.

Unfortunately, that cuts into one's flying time...

There's already a LOT of CL (and Free Flight) presence on YouTube and facebook, but has it helped advance our cause? IDK, but I do know that if you ask about how to do something, you'll get multiple answers. Some good ones, but then again, some seem to have misread the question. A lot like here, in fact!    Steve

[Brett Buck]

As Dave and Tim note, the local "hobby shop" is a dead medium anyway, and CL items have been rare or non-existent for a long, long time. CL hasn't been a mainstream modeling activity since the mid-70s and it has been hard to find or impossible to find locally about as long.

    Tower and associated companies (Great Planes) killed the local hobby shop a very long time ago. Now, even in the SF Bay Area, there are *no* general-interest hobby shops that regularly sell model airplane construction supplies, and the one that still has anything is just selling off old stock (Sheldon's) while going full-bore into the RC Car market. When they run out, there will not be any more. So even with maybe 8 million people in a 50 mile radius, you cannot support any sort of modeling. The nearest real hobby shop I know of is in Sacramento.

  During that same time, CL Stunt competition slowly dwindled to a low in the mid-80's (when no engines were available and PAMPA was down to a few hundred) to an explosion when piped engine were discovered, but much more, when Mike Keville started improving SN and then the indefatigable Tom Morris made it into a magazine rivalling MA. 

    That continued pretty unabated until 2005, but throughout that time CL Stunt was frequently in the top 3 of all events at the NATs. At the same time, some of the other competition events just about disappeared - either because of, or in spite of, attempts to "make it more accessible".   This continues with a few exceptions (like FAI Combat). In stunt, the only places that seemed to be dying off were, again, the places that fiddled with the event to "make it more accessible", which have been spectacular failures.

    I think all these efforts were at best misguided, because they started with the premise that "Stunt is dying, we HAVE TO DO SOMETHING, NOW!" Stunt wasn't dying in the first place, the environment is changing but we have about the same numbers we always do. You can't have CL parts in local hobby shops because it makes absolutely no sense, but you can get literally anything, mostly *much better* than it ever was before, in short order, through other means.

    If you start with the wrong premise, it is not surprising that you come up with ineffective or counterproductive "solutions". Start from the premise that we have done a lot of stuff *very right* compared to other events, and use that to avoid making the same mistakes.

      Brett

[Brett Buck]

Tim that PROFOUNDLY describes the overall problem we have in just about every area.

   I am sure that you could have found people who were once fascinated with crossbows - who then didn't understand that everyone else lost interest when arquebusses were invented.

   Mainstream interest in aviation more-or-less ended on October 4, 1957, with Sputnik. Some fringe elements like the X-15 held some fringe mainstream interest for a while, but for the most part aviation of any type was yesterday's news as soon as the space age came along.

     So you/me/anyone *will never ever* make it back into what it was, those days were done a very long time ago. RC got a boost in the early 70s when it became practical for everyone, at that point, turning it into a adult toy with little relationship or interest in aviation or the mechanics of it, ending as it did in the ARF Toy Catalog era. That was also the nail in the coffin of CL as a significant hobby activity, which was *always a stopgap* for the vast majority of people until RC came along.

    Now we have the nichest of niche hobbies that even the average RC sport flier has never seen and is only vaguely aware of, much less anyone else. Even the AMA barely acknowledges FF or CL outside of the NATs.

    We have a core group of people who seem to be reasoably replensihed (as the numbers show) doing something that is so obscure to outsiders is doesn't exist in a practical sense. That is not an insurmountable problem, and we could not change it in any case. We have a more-or-less constant numbers - a few people age out, then a few new people come in, but it's not changing very quickly if at all. It's been going on like this for more than 30 years - which is far longer than "the golden age" we all think we remember (say, 1949-1970).

     Embrace that, figure out why we have managed to be so *successful* compared to everything else,  and make sure we continue.

      Brett

[john e. holliday]

I read this again and think it is not the disappearance of the local hobby shop.  I think I am the guiltiest in that instead of flying at our local circle every week instead of being on the road out of town has cut down the visibility of control line.  The Flying Eagles had a circle in KCK that when weather was right some one was flying.  Even though I had fun with grandkids at out of town contests I think they might still be flying if it was just for fun.  Now my body keeps me shut down and I can't talk the kids into flying and helping.

[Paul Walker]

The "average" number of CL entrants at the Nat's might be fairly constant, but the make up of that is changing.  If you think stunt is minuscule and obscure, consider speed and carrier. They have been steadily declining for years, and that will get to the point of AMA not supporting them at a Nat's. Racing is also declining, but at a different rate.
What keeps it much the same? As Brett pointed out, stunt is somewhat constant.  Combat has changed from what it was 20 years ago. The combat Nat's was poorly attended due to the numerous money contests. Would you rather win money, or a plaque??  However recently, their numbers have increased significantly  and every other year they hold their Team Trials after the other events.

But, I believe if you look at the average age of the entrants you might find something to indicate the future. And that is not that we are not getting younger. And that does not bode well for the future.

[Howard Rush]

And that is not that we are not getting younger.

Careful, Paul.  You’re close to letting the cat out of the bag.  As you know, replacement parts have allowed our average age to decrease.  I ain’t talking pig valves.   Some of your top stunt fliers are part titanium now.

[Paul Walker]

Careful, Paul.  You’re close to letting the cat out of the bag.  As you know, replacement parts have allowed our average age to decrease.  I ain’t talking pig valves.   Some of your top stunt fliers are part titanium now.

Yes, I know I am.....but a good grade of Ti though.

[Brent Williams]

I salute you guys that dutifully make the trek to the nats each year.  I'm 43 and would love to participate at some future date, but it's a daunting proposal.

For the full nats experience. 2 weeks of leave.  2 weeks of living expenses, food and lodging. The fuel costs for a 3500 mile round trip.  Ooof! 

I think I'm tethered to the semi-local western contests that can keep transit and competition to a few days total.

[qaz049]

Firstly,  it is confirmed our CL Nats will be in the normal time frame of the third week of July.

Looking at Nats entry data for overall controline entries, 

2013.    190
2015.     175
2019.      215
2020.      135.   First Covid year
2021.      208.  !!!!

The numbers are only smaller going backwards through the 2000s

Dave

It's called "a dead cat bounce".


In finance, a dead cat bounce is a small, brief recovery in the price of a declining stock. Derived from the idea that "even a dead cat will bounce if it falls from a great height", the phrase, which originated on Wall Street, is also popularly applied to any case where a subject experiences a brief resurgence during or following a severe decline.

[Matt Colan]

But, I believe if you look at the average age of the entrants you might find something to indicate the future. And that is not that we are not getting younger. And that does not bode well for the future.

That’s the part I am worried about with the event. It’s fine and dandy right now but in 10 years, I have a feeling there’s going to be a massive change in the participation in the event and especially at the NATS

[Dave_Trible]

It's called "a dead cat bounce".


In finance, a dead cat bounce is a small, brief recovery in the price of a declining stock. Derived from the idea that "even a dead cat will bounce if it falls from a great height", the phrase, which originated on Wall Street, is also popularly applied to any case where a subject experiences a brief resurgence during or following a severe decline.

This cat has been bouncing over twenty years. 

Dave

[Dave_Trible]

That’s the part I am worried about with the event. It’s fine and dandy right now but in 10 years, I have a feeling there’s going to be a massive change in the participation in the event and especially at the NATS

You guys are right to be concerned about that.  Entry fees are largely paid with social security checks these days but Matt you, Derek, James Mills and all the younger guys will still be going and by then your children should be in the game as well as hopefully a couple of my grandkids.  I remember we thought it was over in the 70's and 80s.    I know many of the older guys have grandkids.   It's hard to get them interested I know but if we get them exposed to it some will come back to it later in life.  No white flags over here!

Dave

[Ken Culbertson]

That’s the part I am worried about with the event. It’s fine and dandy right now but in 10 years, I have a feeling there’s going to be a massive change in the participation in the event and especially at the NATS

It will adapt and it will survive.  We were scared it was over in 70's when compared to the 60's.  I see a lot of new faces here that are coming back or changing to CL from RC.  It is not a "wave" but it is enough to sustain the sport.  We have all pretty much adapted to the fact that the LHS is no longer the hangout and that we can't just fly anywhere like we did as youngsters.  I see a trend towards ARF's and 3rd party builds being more acceptable in local competition.  Finding a way to open the NATS to more would be nice but I don't see that happening.  Video scoring will happen, perhaps even before I check out which adds 3-4 entries per contest.  Electric only sites may open up.  We used to fly with permission on large company/sports/school parking lots.  Got kicked off because of the fuel damage (like a leaking transmission is OK but we aren't) and complaints (mostly schools) about the noise.  Electric produces none of these excuses.

I see many changes, 20+ entries in Senior at the NATS?  Probably not going to happen again but does the sport survive?  It will still be there long after your name is not the last one on the Walker.

Ken