2017 Nats Stunt Circle Seeding

[Howard Rush]

Here is circle seeding for the 2017 stunt Nats.  I did it using the same seeding formula that was used for previous Stunt Nats.  The seeding formula is based on Open, Expert, and Advanced Nats placing for the last 10 years.  US team members not attending the Nats during a world champs year are included, ranked the same as Open Nats winners.  I put the seeding into the Nats stunt tabulation program.  I'll forward copies of the seeding spreadsheet to anybody who wants it. Likewise, I'll send the tabulation program to anybody who wants it.  I encourage everybody to look at these spreadsheets and critique them.  Here are the top 30 seeds:

1 David Fitzgerald
2 Paul Walker
3 Orestes Hernandez
4 Derek Barry
5 Howard Rush
6 Kaz Minato
7 Doug Moon
8 Brett Buck
9 Kenny Stevens
10 Matt Neumann
11 Bob Hunt
12 Richard Oliver
13 William DeMauro
14 Chris Rud
15 Frank McMillan
16 Joe Gilbert
17 Eric Taylor
18 Bill Werwage
19 Robert McDonald
20 Bud Wieder
21 Michael Schmitt
22 Bill Rich
23 Steve Moon
24 Gene Martine
25 Dennis Vander Kuur
26 Mark McKinney
27 Frank Williams
28 Michael Waldron
29 Scott Reynolds
30 Ryan Young

For the top 20 in Open and Advanced for the last ten years, first place gets 20 points, second place gets 19, and so on.  US Team members who were out of town for the WC get 20 points each.  Scores get multiplied by 10 for 2016, 9 for 2015, and so on.  Advanced scores are then multiplied by .5.  Bud Wieder's score includes both his Open and Advanced placings, for example.  I combined the Expert and Advanced placings for 2013 and 2014. 

Top score is seeded #1.  Guys who haven't placed in the top 20 in either Advanced or Open in the last ten years are unseeded.  Their assignment to one of the four groups for qualifying rounds is done by random draw.
 
The tabulation program tosses out seeds that are not entered at the current Nats and moves those who are entered up to fill in gaps.  For example, if Dave Fitzgerald doesn't show up for this year’s Nats, the tabulation program will bump everybody else up a notch.

This seeding is only used to distribute contestants among circles for qualifying.  It might make the circles more uniform, but it has little effect on the outcome of the contest.  Here is a crude analysis I did on the effect of Nats qualification rounds seeding: http://stunthanger.com/smf/open-forum/nats-seeding/

Although seeding has little effect--none at all on the top handful of fliers-- using a formula published in advance removes any arbitrariness about circle assignment.