2018 Nats Stunt Qualifications Rounds Circle Seeding

[Howard Rush]

Here is circle seeding for the 2018 stunt Nats.  I haven't heard officially that Darrell  will use this seeding, but chances are good.  I did it using the same seeding formula that was used for previous Stunt Nats.  The seeding formula is based on Open, Expert, and Advanced Nats placing for the last 10 years.  US team members not attending the Nats during a world champs year are included, ranked the same as Open Nats winners.  I did the calculation this year.  I put the seeding into the Nats stunt tabulation program.  I'll forward copies of the seeding spreadsheet to anybody who wants it. Likewise, I'll send the tabulation program to anybody who wants it.  I encourage everybody to look at these spreadsheets and critique them.  Here are the first 30 seeds:

1 David Fitzgerald
2 Paul Walker
3 Orestes Hernandez
4 Derek Barry
5 Kaz Minato
6 Kenny Stevens
7 Howard Rush
8 Doug Moon
9 Matt Neumann
10 Brett Buck
11 Chris Rud
12 Bob Hunt
13 Joe Gilbert
14 William DeMauro
15 Frank McMillan
16 Richard Oliver
17 Eric Taylor
18 Michael Schmitt
19 Robert McDonald
20 Bill Werwage
21 James Mills
22 Bud Wieder
23 Vincent Bodde
24 Mark McKinney
25 Jerry Haupt
26 Ronnie Thompson
27 Gene Martine
28 Steve Moon
29 Samuel Niebel
30 Michael McHenry

For the top 20 in Open and Advanced for the last ten years, first place gets 20 points, second place gets 19, and so on.  US Team members who were out of town for the WC get 20 points each.  Scores get multiplied by 10 for 2017, 9 for 2016, and so on.  Advanced scores are then multiplied by .5.  I combined the Expert and Advanced placings for 2013 and 2014. 

Top score is seeded #1.  Guys who haven't placed in the top 20 in either Advanced or Open in the last ten years are unseeded.  Their assignment to one of the four groups for qualifying rounds is done by random draw.
 
The tabulation program tosses out seeds that are not entered at the current Nats and moves those who are entered up to fill in gaps.  For example, if Dave Fitzgerald doesn't show up for this year’s Nats, the tabulation program will bump everybody else up a notch.

This seeding is only used to distribute contestants among circles for qualifying.  It might make the circles more uniform, but it has little effect on the outcome of the contest.  Here is a crude analysis I did on the effect of Nats qualification rounds seeding: http://stunthanger.com/smf/open-forum/nats-seeding/

Although seeding has little effect--none at all on the top handful of fliers-- using a formula published in advance removes any arbitrariness about circle assignment.

[Crist Rigotti]

Thank you Howard for all the hard and thoughtful work you've put into each years seeding.  Your work is appreciated.

[Tim Wescott]

I think you just randomly drew 29 famous names out of a hat.  Plus your own, of course.

[Howard Rush]

You should be soldering.