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Author Topic: A bold prediction!!!!????  (Read 1897 times)

Offline Russell Bond

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A bold prediction!!!!????
« on: August 30, 2010, 05:37:10 AM »
Hi all,

I'm new to electrics but I am going to make a bold prediction.

Within 10 years, 50% of stunt models entered in the World Champs will be electric!!!.....Is this TOO bold????

Here are some photos of my new model.

60" span, Arrowind 2832-05, 3600-4s batteries, 70oz and does 5.5 seconds a lap with almost as much line tension in the overhead 8s as it does in level flight. (Lines are 68.5' center to center.)
 
My older model was a similar type running a PA75 with muffler. Again the model was 70oz plus fuel and I thought it was good!

I've set the electric model do do slightly slower lap times than the PA model does, but it actually goes slightly quicker through the maneuvers. (It doesn't slow down!)
It's almost like having a glow motor that switches going up hill. GREAT!!!!!

Electrics are the go.
I'm now selling my glow models!!!
 
« Last Edit: August 30, 2010, 05:15:03 PM by Russell Bond »
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Offline William DeMauro

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Re: A bold prediction!!!!????
« Reply #1 on: August 30, 2010, 10:42:10 AM »
Looks like we have another satisfied customer!!!!!
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Offline NED-088

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Re: A bold prediction!!!!????
« Reply #2 on: August 30, 2010, 12:52:38 PM »
Within 10 years, 50% of stunt models entered in the World Champs will be electric!!!.....Is this TOO bold????
No, too conservative. ;D
'If you think there's something about my English, you're right. I'm Dutch... '
But I DO play Stunt and I DO fly Bluegrass.

Offline Lionel Smith

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Re: A bold prediction!!!!????
« Reply #3 on: August 30, 2010, 01:38:18 PM »
I have even a bolder prediction  S?P

That within the next 10 to 15 years I.C. engines are going to be a thing of the past, the only ones you will be able to purchase are ones used for competition use that require I.C. engines, the average sport flier will only use electric and all aerobatic aircraft, be it C.L or R.C. will be electric.

Think back 10 years ago, we had no brushless motors or LiPo batteries, so what will happen in the next 10 years. Technology is a logarithmic curve so it will just get faster and faster.
Forever learning to keep the pointy end away from the ground!

Offline Rudy Taube

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Re: A bold prediction!!!!????
« Reply #4 on: August 30, 2010, 03:20:37 PM »
I agree with Lionel.

For both CLPA and RC pattern the present IC engines, on or off pipes, both 2C and 4C are very very good. But they seem to be getting close to their max potential with very little room for more improvement, they are technically mature. I think it is great that what may be the last wet engine to win the Worlds was a ST 60, a very good glow engine.

E power on the other hand is still in it's early stages of development. The recent breakthrough in battery technology by both Hyperion and Thunder Power has made ECL much better. We now have 25C as standard, with a 5C charge rate and increased cycles/battery.

The fuel costs are going in opposite directions. This fact alone will quicken the conversion rate to ECL. Now we have wet systems fuel costs at approx. $1.00 per flight and a ECL system costing less than $.75 per flight. As quality battery costs continue to decrease and glow fuel continues to increase the picture of our future becomes very clear.

For the "top" competition pilots we will see the conversion in the next few years pass the 50% mark and approach the 100% mark in less than 5 years. Just ask World Champion Bob Hunt and other World Champions how they look at their equipment. They all are there to win. They will use the best tools that are legal and available. Decades ago they put their heavy, weak, and complicated ignition engines in their rear view mirror and never shed a tear over it. The 1st time they get beat by a ECL plane at the World or our Nats they will not let it happen again! Most of the other "winners in waiting" will follow the top flyers in this sea change.

With a world population at 7,000,000,000 and the US population over 310,000,000, we are getting a little too crowded to have annoyingly LOUD engines continue to be used by a small group flying toy airplanes. This will not last long. In the conservative US we will still have many CL flyers say:"..... you can have my annoying, loud Felon Fox when you pry it from my cold dead hands ....." but in the rest of the world the conversion will come more quickly. And in the US nature will take its course.

It should be a very exciting next few years. :-)
« Last Edit: September 02, 2010, 11:32:27 PM by Rudy Taube »
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Offline Russell Bond

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Re: A bold prediction!!!!????
« Reply #5 on: August 30, 2010, 05:14:19 PM »
Haha.....Gee, and I thought my prediction was bold!!   :o

100% in 5 years or so.......we can but hope.

Yes, I am a very satisfied customer.. ;D
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Offline Rudy Taube

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Re: A bold prediction!!!!????
« Reply #6 on: August 30, 2010, 08:50:40 PM »
Hi Russell,

Not as bold as you may think. Remember, I was referring to the top pilots, not all CL pilots.    Quote from my post:

"....... For the "top" competition pilots we will see the conversion in the next few years pass the 50% mark and approach the 100% mark in less than 5 years. ......"

Please don't misunderstand me. I'm not hopeful for ECL in the US. Personally, other than keeping more flying sites, I don't really care if anyone ever converts to E power. For my own interest I should be telling everyone that E power is terrible and they should keep on flying their Felon Foxes! This would allow me to be more competitive for a longer time. ;-)

My previous comment:  "......you can have my annoying loud Felon Fox when you pry it from my cold dead hands ..... " refers to many of the CL flyers in the US. Most of these will never convert, but given the average age (>65?) of CL flyers in the US that feel this way this is not a long term problem.

Like most changes, it moves very slowly at 1st like the past 5 years of ECL. Then it starts to become a movement beyond just the bleeding edge zealots, the stage we are in now. Then it really picks up the pace and becomes mainstream, like the next few years. Then it becomes the CL NORM, approx. 5 years out. Then wet systems become rare and young people ask: what the heck is THAT? when they see one. This final stage is about 3 or 4 years from now in the rest of the world, 7+ years from now here in the very conservative US.

But when it comes to the very Top pilots, I will stick with my bold prediction. :-)

I'm glad you started this thread. It will be interesting to see what others think of our progress, and the timing of milestones in our future.

Regards,  H^^   
« Last Edit: September 02, 2010, 11:36:54 PM by Rudy Taube »
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Offline Russell Bond

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Re: A bold prediction!!!!????
« Reply #7 on: August 30, 2010, 09:18:24 PM »
Hi Rudy,
Yes, I was refering to the top pilots as well, that's why I said at the W/Champs. (I didn't want to be too bold!! hahaha)
I agree, some sports flyers and "die-hards" won't convert.

Why, only this weekend an "older" pilot saw me flying the electric and when I said that electrics are the way to go, he asked how much the batteries are. I said about $30 - $40 and I have about ten of them. He laughed, said that electric are a bit of a fad and also expensive to run.
Funny thing, he then had a flight of his "wet" model and had a rich setting and could only do level flight and soft loops.
These people will NEVER "get it". R%%%%

PS: I'm not young either, 60yo next birthday!!!  :'(
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Online Dennis Adamisin

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Re: A bold prediction!!!!????
« Reply #8 on: August 30, 2010, 10:49:52 PM »
One of the ahardest thing for a newbie to CLPA to learn is how to set-up and run an IC engine for consistency.  Thus I continue to maintain that the awitch to ECL will come from the entry level flyer groups, and those with the most investied in top of the line IC engines) will be among the last to switch.

BTW big CONGRATs to you Russell on that great looking new ECL bird of yours!
Denny Adamisin
Fort Wayne, IN

As I've grown older, I've learned that pleasing everyone is impossible, but pissing everyone off is a piece of cake!

Offline Russell Bond

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Re: A bold prediction!!!!????
« Reply #9 on: August 31, 2010, 12:37:28 AM »
Thanks Dennis, yes it's great to fly.

One thing I've noticed about the electrics (I've flown three different models) is that they turn so snappy.
I'm assuming this is because of no "barbell' effect as the heavy weight is near the balance point.
I had to narrow my handle spacing over 1/2" (compared to what I normally would use) to stop bouncing the corners etc.
I'm slowly getting used to it.  ;D
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Offline Rudy Taube

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Re: A bold prediction!!!!????
« Reply #10 on: August 31, 2010, 01:53:25 AM »
Russell,

I'm glad your plane turns so well, and I agree with you that the lessoning of the barbell effect may be another benefit of using E power.

Your plane is beautiful, giving us yet another great example of planes built without our draconian BOM rule will still be built to very high standards! :-)

A few questions:

1. Is your plane built as a take-apart?

2. Does your battery balance the plane when located in front of the LE? Or did you have to cut into the LE to move the battery aft?

BTW: Your not that old, your adventuresome spirit and artistic expression is that of a young man!   y1

We have many CL guys in our little town of LA who are only in their 40s and 50s who are already going on 95, it is a very relative term. ;-)
Regards,  H^^
Rudy
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Offline Russell Bond

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Re: A bold prediction!!!!????
« Reply #11 on: August 31, 2010, 02:18:11 AM »
Hi Rudy,
The wing is removable but not in two pieces, (it is an "all one piece" wing.)
I had to angle the battery as in the photos and the rough drawing attached.
This kept the battery near the balance point. It is held in by vecro and is easy to change.

The wing is an early Firecracker with the hinge to hinge tail moment at 19.5".
With the battery fitted, the balance point is about 2.5" back from the leading edge at the root. However the wing has a 4" LE taper which means the balance point is almost half way along the LE from the tip.
Some would say that is nose heavy, but even though it is stable in level flight, it turns on a dime, tracks well and is light on the handle, with good line tension everywhere.


 

« Last Edit: August 31, 2010, 03:02:31 AM by Russell Bond »
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Offline Dean Pappas

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Re: A bold prediction!!!!????
« Reply #12 on: August 31, 2010, 07:53:07 AM »
... One thing I've noticed about the electrics (I've flown three different models) is that they turn so snappy.
I'm assuming this is because of no "barbell' effect as the heavy weight is near the balance point.
I had to narrow my handle spacing over 1/2" (compared to what I normally would use) to stop bouncing the corners etc.
I'm slowly getting used to it.  ;D

Hello Russell,
If you look at the powerplant split in F3A, you'll see that things sit around 50% these days, at the highest levels of competition, and at the wide base of the pyramid, flyers are enjoying bargain-priced equipment that has been sold off!
It makes for an orderly (?) transition.

Less barbell ... sure. That is definitely a factor. The other, very important factor is the one to alluded to in your first post: slightly faster maneuver times despite setting for slightly slower lap times. The plane is slowing down less during the corners! That's a biggie, and we can use it to our advantage. In the past (I'm going out on a limb here and leaning on many a discussion with Werwage about the "power-steering" feel of an aft CG) we have set CGs aft of the ideal from the point of groove or consistency with different wind conditions, just to minimize the energy lost in the corners.

Does this sound like what you are feeling?

take care, All,  Dean
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Offline Russell Bond

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Re: A bold prediction!!!!????
« Reply #13 on: August 31, 2010, 09:13:47 AM »
I've never really gone for the aft CG because in 1983 I saw Brian Eather's Starduster (forerunner to the Firecracker) where the balance point was a long way forward with a long tail moment and this plane flew well and turned nicely. He placed 10th at the World Champs in 1984 with this Starduster when the competition was held in the USA.
 
However my new model is certainly a little more forward than I thought would work, but it does so very well!

Below are two pictures of the Starduster with Brian from 1983 and 1984.
Bandolero

Offline jose modesto

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Re: A bold prediction!!!!????
« Reply #14 on: August 31, 2010, 01:06:04 PM »
As to your prediction about Estunt at 50% i believe that after this NAT'S there will be an avalanche toward E Stunt that will rival the wave toward pipes. Just a few names Walker, Hunt,Fitz,Howard,PTG,Whittle,Addamisin (clan),Palko,K stevens,B Weider,and one of the godfathers Kim D.

The color photo of Brian model was taken at Flushing Meadows park NYC i remember his flights as very smooth large with good corners. Model was trimmed not like the other US models at the time. I was fortunate to have attended the flushing meet and the worlds in 1984
Love your E firecracker good luck with it.
 
Photo of one of my current E models. its called 2ENR(tweener) All composite Vacuum bagged in femalemolds
Jose modesto
« Last Edit: August 31, 2010, 01:49:23 PM by jose modesto »

Offline Rudy Taube

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Re: A bold prediction!!!!????
« Reply #15 on: August 31, 2010, 03:26:32 PM »
Hi Russell,

Thank you for the nice construction photos and clear drawing. That is a clever battery install. :-)

I have one more favor to ask:

I like your neat take-apart system shown in your drawing. Do you have any photos of this system? I would like to see the details of how you did it.  TIA

If we can move the CL world toward E power and take-apart planes I think CL will be more attractive to more retreads like me. In our near future cars will get smaller and mass transit will become more popular, even here in the very conservative US. This will make planes like yours very attractive to more modelers.

Regards, 
Rudy
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Offline Russell Bond

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Re: A bold prediction!!!!????
« Reply #16 on: August 31, 2010, 05:11:11 PM »
Thanks all for the great words.
I'll take some photos of the pull apart construction this weekend.

I have a small confession to make, I had help building this model.........well actually a lot of help.

Bob Hunt made the wings and tail, Tom Morris did the horns and Bruce Hoffmann in Sydney finished the fuselage for me (set up for the electrics). I didn't have time (or the electric expertise) to make the plane so I paid these nice gentlemen to complete it for me.
The plane was made to my specifications so at least I had some hand in it. Oh, I also painted the trim colors and fitted the stickers.  ::)
Bruce came up with the battery location idea and the pull-apart technique was "pinched" from Pete Tindall in the UK, (from the Chipmonk that he had in the '70s).
 
Bandolero

Offline Rudy Taube

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Re: A bold prediction!!!!????
« Reply #17 on: September 01, 2010, 03:47:27 AM »
Hi Russell,

Thank you in advance, I look forward to seeing your take-apart and battery install photos. :-)

Sounds like you had some excellent help and it was a good team effort. I wish we were as enlightened in this country as those of you in 95% of the rest of the world! I think you did the most important parts. You called out the specs and made the plane sparkle with the nice trim and great stickers! :-)
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Offline Bruce Hoffmann

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Re: A bold prediction!!!!????
« Reply #18 on: September 01, 2010, 08:58:13 PM »
As the builder of 'Ipana' (the name I christened the model with - an old brand of toothpaste - whiter than white!) I'll supply a few photos... the idea with the battery was to get the lateral balance as even as possible and not to make it too nose heavy.  As it is, Russell has had to put some weight up front to trim it to his preference.. He didn't want a plastic canopy on it originally either, however I talked him out of the 'solid' balsa painted black - I think mine looks better!
Very happy that he is enjoying flying it though - its a worry when building something for someone else that it's not going to work for them...  the photos showing the 'wing joining system' is actually in Russells previous 'Bandolero' model which I copied and used in 'Ipana'!

Bruce
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Offline Russell Bond

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Re: A bold prediction!!!!????
« Reply #19 on: September 01, 2010, 09:07:17 PM »
IPANA!!!!........... you'll get Ipana!....hahahaha.

Here are some more photos of the canopy before paint.

Yes, I'm very pleased with Bruce's work, so much so that I am getting him to make me another plane next year....poor guy!

 
Bandolero

Offline Rudy Taube

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Re: A bold prediction!!!!????
« Reply #20 on: September 02, 2010, 03:07:41 AM »
Hi Bruce,

Thank you for the excellent photos. They are very clear and helpful. That is a great KIS way to attach the wing. :-)

The attachment plates in the fuselage and in the wing look to be about 3mm ply, is that correct? 

I sure wish we could use a team effort for our planes here in the US. In my next life I want to come back as an Australian! Enlightened rules, fantastic sailing, and very nice people! :-)  Thanks again for your help.

Regards,  H^^


Russell,

Thanks for the closeup canopy photos. Very imaginative. You even have a "stealth" pilot in there. It must have been all the radiation, or was it the Ipana? ;-)
Rudy
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Offline Bruce Hoffmann

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Re: A bold prediction!!!!????
« Reply #21 on: September 02, 2010, 03:24:59 AM »
Hi Rudy...  the ply used for the mounts are 3mm - as you thought!  They are mounted on a ply former with a 45 deg gusset of balsa at the joint, light fiberglass mat over the whole thing and blind nuts used to bolt into.  The Fuselage has a doubler right up past the T/E of 1mm ply that the ply mounts are attached to..  On the bottom of the wing is the 'cut out' section of the fuselage, 3mm ply forms the base with 1/8" balsa over the top of it.  The flap horn hole just pushes into the elevator push rod which is prevented from falling outby the internal formers of the fuselage - centrifugal force keeps it pushing outwards - most of the time anyway!

Re the canopy... I haven't put a pilot in any of my models for years... when I did they always looked like they had just had a good bout with Linda Lovelace (if you get my meaning!) - In my own models I've been putting miniature books - starting off with "Stunt for Dummies" part 1, I'm now up to Part 4 (should be part 5 but I forgot to put it in one model!)  Russell's last models have had a carved balsa Canopy... I didn't have that much light timber on hand so suggested I put a plastic one on - I think it looks better anyhow...

Regards, Bruce
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Offline Paul Allen

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Re: A bold prediction!!!!????
« Reply #22 on: September 02, 2010, 03:08:53 PM »
Russell
         I'am not sure how long it will take,last weekend Ian Smith and the NACA club
in Newcastle, NSW, Australia held its first F2B Electric Comp, only attracted 4 flyers.
I guess time will tell, on the plus side other than 2 small problems all the electric gear
performed well, 10 months ago I started to play with electric by sourcing bits from scratch.
Now, the new electric flyer can buy a system off the shelf a big plus,lets hope this attract's
people to electric.
Paul Allen
Australia

Offline Bruce Hoffmann

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Re: A bold prediction!!!!????
« Reply #23 on: September 02, 2010, 04:46:21 PM »
Hi Paul,
I had intended to go to the Comp. up there last week but its about a 3.5 hr drive from Katoomba (where I live).
I'd been following the weather through the week and it looked like strong winds were expected, as it was a 'coastal' location where the competition was to be held, (where winds are normally stronger) and the winds had been strong all week I decided not to make the trip.  Looks like I made the wrong decision though, Warren Leadbeater told me later that the winds were 'light and variable'...
Next time... ~^

Re this 'thread' - I'm predicting that Electrics WILL take over - I'm not going to estimate a date as I know many pilots who are Very happy with their IC set-ups and lack the time available to build a new model and Electrify it. 

As for me - as far as F2B Aerobatics goes - I haven't mixed any fuel since last December!   ;D I can't see a reason why I would go 'back' to IC - the trials and tribulations of having a lean or rich run in a comp. flight (when all practice flights have been good) is behind me.  I love the predictability of EL flight - what I tell people is that I can fly the model today, pack it away for a year or more and 'know' that next time I take it out and put a good battery in it, that it will behave exactly as it did on its previous flight the year before!  You can't expect that with IC! y1

Bruce
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Offline Dean Pappas

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Re: A bold prediction!!!!????
« Reply #24 on: September 02, 2010, 08:05:01 PM »
Hi Gang,
If you look in this last issue of Flying Models Magazine you'll find Dave Lockhart's recounting of the E-statistics in Pattern at this years U.S. NATs. It's coming ... like a freight train.

Dean
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Offline Russell Bond

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Re: A bold prediction!!!!????
« Reply #25 on: September 03, 2010, 03:11:10 AM »
Hi Dean,
Yes!!....I think it will be the same with C/L Stunt, especially when some of the IC guys get over the their initial resistance about electrics. (Come on train!!!!)

I'm not going to bother telling the IC flyers how good electrics are, I'll just let the plane do the talking!  S?P

I mean, there is one flyer who is PROUD of the fact that he doesn't use a filter, no matter how much "nagging" we do.
Guess who keeps having fuel blockages and lean runs?! LL~
Bandolero


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