I would hope that the thinking behind line sizing is not just to cover the normal flight loads, but for that occasional event where your plane goes slack on the lines and then bangs when it hits the ends again (and you have to finish out the flight before you can change your shorts).
I've never had anything break when this happened to me, but I've seen a plane with an older set of lines have both lines come off at the handle end -- fortunately there was a convenient tree to catch the airplane.
That's why it is a factor of 4, and a factor of 2 on a single line failure.
In engineering, you have to make reasonable trade offs margin for performance all the time. I think you are somewhat familiar with controls engineering, and typical stability margin requirements are 9 db gain margin and 30 degree phase margin for normal variation of plant parameters. You can make it 20 dB and 90 degrees, or anything you want, and ensure even more margin, but give up performance.
You could make everyone fly on .032 solids, and then you will never have an issue with failures. It also cripples the performance to the point that it becomes even safer when no one bothers to fly at all.
We have some analysis from engineers in the aerospace industry, and 70ish years of practical experience to guide the analysis. There have been occasional failures like you describe (like Allen Goff at the 2003 NATS where two .018 lines broke in a worst-case accident) but not many.
I am pretty comfortable that the current chart is about what you need to make a reasonable balance between safety and practicality.
Brett